Over under martingale

Iam using the latest version 7.0.0.34 as I noticed you released a fix in another post. It seems to stick after a second goal is scored. I have tried it twice in test mode today. Hope you can help.

Hi
Yes, I have the same.
I have not had a chance yet to properly check the trigger log, but a quick glance seemed to show a scoreline as false, whereas in reality it was true. I'm not sure if this is connected to the market / match score problems some other users are reporting, because this trigger relies on heavily on market_score. I will look at this trigger more over this weekend and report back here.

Hopefully though, Support might come back with an earlier answer.

Hi
This trigger is one of the recently posted example triggers. In trigger "Total Score = 2" there is an error in the amount expression which stops the trigger after two goals. i.e. OU2.5 lay bet is not fired. I think the error is in evaluating ou0_market_parent_id_1_profit_loss. I have tried to find it but am struggling a bit. I was hoping please for some help to find and fix this error. Cheers


13:45:13 Checking market "Soccer - Fixtures / Fixtures 28 July / Amkar v CSKA Moscow / Over/Under 2.5 goals".

13:45:13 Checking condition  and Selection's Name contains "Over".

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: "Over", intermediate: "Over", final: "Over".
13:45:13 Selection: Under 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: "Over", intermediate: "Over", final: "Over".

13:45:13 Condition is: TRUE. valid for 1 selections: Over 2.5 Goals.

13:45:13 Checking condition  and Selection's Trigger Expression market_score1 + market_score2 is equal to 2.

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: market_score1 + market_score2, intermediate: 1+1, final: 2.

13:45:13 Condition is: TRUE. valid for 1 selections: Over 2.5 Goals.

13:45:13 Checking condition  and Market's Name contains "Over/Under 2.5".

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: "Over/Under 2.5", intermediate: "Over/Under 2.5", final: "Over/Under 2.5".

13:45:13 Condition is: TRUE. valid for 1 selections: Over 2.5 Goals.

13:45:13 Checking condition  and Global User Variables ou1_market_parent_id are set.

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: ou1_market_parent_id, intermediate: ou1_-26870931, final: ou1_-26870931.

13:45:13 Condition is: TRUE. valid for 1 selections: Over 2.5 Goals.

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: lay_price, intermediate: 1.16, final: 1.16.

13:45:13 Selection: Over 2.5 Goals, initial expr.: (init_bet - (ou0_market_parent_id_1_profit_loss + ou1_market_parent_id_1_profit_loss))/(1-commission), intermediate: (4-(ou0_-26870931_1_0.0000000+-0.7199998))/(1-0.05), final: (4-(ou0_-26870931_1_-0.71999980))/0.95000000.

13:45:13 Error in the trigger expression of price or amount for selection "Over 2.5 Goals".

13:45:13 All bets will be discarded.

hi
i cannot test the triggers.
BUT on looking at them the conditions for .5 is
market_score1 + market_score2 is equal to 1
the other triggers are the same IS EQUAL TO x
now if the score IS equal to 1 then the remember trigger for .5 will work,BUT when the score is more than 1, the .5 trigger will not work because it is fixed to 1 goal only.
maybe by altering these to IS EQUAL OR GREATER THAN
ALSO do not set the bot to delete settled markets, as the bot needs all under/over markets for loss info.

mcbee

I think not deleting settled markets is certainly essential, but from the log the error appears to occur in the expression that evaluates the stake for the next market.  If the previous market(s) profit_loss were not available (ie 0) then this should not cause an evaluation error, as nowhere can anything be divided by zero.

I would quite like this problem solved as I fancy trying this trigger on the low scoring leagues/matches.  It looks like something that could work quite well, although I have never studied the odds of the next markets as more goals are scored.  Regardless of the current fault, I believe there should be a delay after last suspension ends to allow markets to settle, as there is a lot of over-reaction in these markets.

Hi
You were correct mcbee. Settled markets were being deleted automatically making the loss data unavailable for the next trigger. The trigger is now working correctly. I’m not convinced on the “equal or greater than” because it looks as if the remember triggers for market score are for exactly 1 or exactly 2 etc. I’ll come back to it if needed. Much obliged for your help.

just read your post rubold. I agree with you

ou0_market_parent_id_1_profit_loss
equates to
ou0_-26870931_1_-0.71999980
I have highlighted where I think it is wrong and is returning the actual market_parent_id because the market for ou0 was deleted

it looks to be working properly now the markets are not being deleted.
Thanks chaps

ps I want to try and adapt this trigger to work on a combination of market score, and if that fails, market prices. But that is for a rainy day

This table may prove helpful in selections:  http://www.betvirus.com/topLeagues/under/

What refresh settings are you using for all those markets that need loaded?  I suspect it could be a problem running this with more than a few matches.

Hi
Market score is updated 15secs so I was matching that inplay. But I was only testing one game at a time (9 markets) to find the fault. Thanks for the heads up on the selections. You might like to try the opposite for testing, so you can see how the odds move, especially if there are early goals. I think the main problem with this trigger will be the reliability of the market score service. The other challenge might be when 2 goals are scored in quick succession.

hi MarkV
i did try this when it came out and found it a bit iffy on the goal side.
my answer to this problem and maybe a good improvement to the system would be to place bets at 2 in advance.
so at 0-0 you set the triggers to place a bet on .5 and 1.5
when a goal is scored the next bet goes on the 2.5 and so on.
so you are always 2 goals in front of the score.
because it is lay betting you will win 1 but mostly 2 bets.
this also helps with poor liquidity later on because you have already placed the bets in advance.

mcbee

Hi mcbee
That’s an ingenious idea – thank you.

Just wanted to let you know that I tested these triggers well prior to publishing them. There are no errors in them, but if you're experiencing problems running them, let's look into it.

The triggers can also work with several matches at the same time, not just one.

Oxa, I think it was established that the problem was due to Deleting settled markets, so perhaps just mention this setting in the trigger description.    How many simultaneous games do you think MFP could cope with at say 15 sec refresh rate?

The danger with this strategy is obviously goals in the last 5 min as the lay price for the next market will be very high.  There is no way round this if you want to recover all previous losses and return a level stake profit.  mcbee's suggestion is good, but you will still face the likeliehood of big liabilities at the end and on 2 markets.

I thought about trying a green up when it's close to 5 min from  end of match, with perhaps adding slightly to the advancing stake to maintain the loss recovery.  Anyone else have thoughts on this?

LOL, it just happened in the Hacken v GAIS match, goal in last 2 minutes (I think) so next market had to be laid at 5.0 and has now fallen to 3.4  - yikes, might be another goal.  Watch out folks, I really don't think this will profit long term unmodified.  Match still going at 115 min elapsed time!!!

Another goal is last few seconds, so total loss.  No use if you have a heart problem.
Very dangerous strategy IMO.

hi
 
that is why you should only use teams that has scored no more than goals each  in there prev matches.


mcbee

That still wouldn't confer immunity from last minute goals and loads of them are scored in the last few minutes.  Anyway this idea is now in the bin - there are much better and safer football strategies.