Author Topic: Over under martingale  (Read 60920 times)

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #15 on: 30 Jul 2012, 19:58 »
Hi
I had a similar game in testing yesterday. Green most of the way and then a goal in stoppage time.  The idea of going for a greenup is good, but I would say around the 75min mark due to a considerable proportion of goals being scored in the last 15 plus stoppage added on. You mentioned earlier about picking the right selections for this trigger and mcbee just verified it, as do I.  There is a comparable trigger for the Total Goals market here http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/lay-total-goals/ which was also trashed for similar reasons.

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #16 on: 08 Feb 2013, 16:42 »
hi MarkV
i did try this when it came out and found it a bit iffy on the goal side.
my answer to this problem and maybe a good improvement to the system would be to place bets at 2 in advance.
so at 0-0 you set the triggers to place a bet on .5 and 1.5
when a goal is scored the next bet goes on the 2.5 and so on.
so you are always 2 goals in front of the score.
because it is lay betting you will win 1 but mostly 2 bets.
this also helps with poor liquidity later on because you have already placed the bets in advance.

mcbee

Hi mcbee I found your trigger over-under-martingale plus 1 goal, is there a way to make this trigger lay the second bet after say 10 seconds as I noticed that after a goal the next bet is placed straight away, I noticed that if the bet was place a few seconds later the lay price is much less.

Thanks

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #17 on: 08 Feb 2013, 19:15 »
hi
you could try putting in the score =2,3,4,5,6,7,8 triggers
and markets minutes since last suspension is equal or greater than  .16
the .16=10 secs


mcbee

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #18 on: 09 Feb 2013, 08:45 »
Hi
Instead of a time delay you could try one or more conditions relating to market value for example:
market’s lay book % is greater than 95.00 (or whatever % you are happy with)

or the spread between back and lay prices is not too big:
selection’s trigger expression g_ticks(back_price,lay_price) is less than 5

but this will depend on reasonable liquidity in the market
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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #19 on: 01 Mar 2013, 04:09 »
Hi guys ,

I am new around here so bear with me :).
Once I saw this system I was really into it.
I am manually trading on under 1.5 and and tick offsetting on over 2.5 at 5 ticks.
I am doing this on basketball and soccer. Successfully??? when the human factor stays out... YES. When the human factor kicks in ..... FORGET ABOUT SUCCESS.
This is a reason that I'm closer and closer to MF.
Now, that the introduction is done, I was reading this post and I saw that somebody already noticed the danger of a late goal.
From the manual trading/parlay betting experience, I am more than aware of this situation.
Actually, more than 60 % of the teams are used to score more than 20% of the goals between 75 and 90 and (maybe unbelievable) most of them scores in the last 5 min of the game.
Taking in consideration all the aspects, I was thinking that this system applied to "2 goals behind" could reduce the risk of being caught by a late goal.
So, my idea is to lay 2 goals behind.
Ex.
- at 0 goals scored, lay over 1.5
- if first goal scored, distribute lost and lay over 2.5
- if second goal scored, distribute lost and lay 3.5
- and so on

To make this system work at best, I think that each condition should check the goal scored time, if over 80 min, just let it run without placing another bet since there is less likely to have 2 goals in the last 10 min and also the odds are to high.

Please let me know if it makes sense, so I can go and build the trigger.

Regards,
TheSmartestBet

 

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #20 on: 01 Mar 2013, 07:39 »
Hi

Quote
- at 0 goals scored, lay over 1.5
- if first goal scored, distribute lost and lay over 2.5
- if second goal scored, distribute lost and lay 3.5
- and so on

Why distribute lost, if u yet  can win this bet?

Quote
Please let me know if it makes sense, so I can go and build the trigger.

Yes, ;) it makes sense.

Chears
Pcal72
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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #21 on: 01 Mar 2013, 08:34 »
Because another goal can basically create a bigger lost and automatically a bigger amount to lay on the next bet.

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #22 on: 01 Mar 2013, 10:04 »
Well, never try it that way but its possible that works.

 8)
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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #23 on: 02 Mar 2013, 21:52 »
As I stated in the anterior post, I am working to adapt the Martigale to work on 2 goals difference (lower the damage on late goals).
So, I am a little stuck :(.
I am distributing the loss fine, however I cannot pick it up because the market is not settle.
Basically my adapted trigger should work as follow:
 - at 0 goals place initial lay on over 1.5
 - if goal scored, distribute loss on 1.5 and place a new lay on over 2.5 with initial+loss on 1.5+commission on total potential win
 - if second goal scored, distribute loss on 2.5 and place a new lay on over 3.5 with initial+loss on 1.5+loss on 2.5+commission on total potential win
 - and so on until 8.5

However, even if the loss is distributed, the new lay has just initial+commission applied on initial.
This is happening because the markets with loss are not settled (I guess, I donèt see any other reason since the trigger order is good).
How could I bypass this issue?

Thank you in advance
   

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #24 on: 03 Mar 2013, 07:49 »
Actually I fixed it myself.
I made a mistake initially on the triggers order.
Now, I tested it and it is working fine.
There is a downside on the system though.
You need to run it with max 5% of your bankroll if you don't want to get cold on a high scoring game (not enough funds to lay to cover your loss).
A goal scored late (min 80 up) can give you hard time too. You don't lose necessarily your stake but you will really sweat.
I had  the chance to test it with two killer games like (Vasco - Fluminese 3-2 with all the goals scored between min 71 and 87; Melbourne - Newcastle (Aust) 5-0 with 5 goals scored by min 66) so not really funny games however .... with enough funds .... it works.
I did not find yet how to attach files but I will attach the trigger soon (I still what to fully test it too).

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #25 on: 03 Mar 2013, 21:48 »
Unfortunately, it is working but it is not really working  ???.
Now it is adding the loss.....However, not the effective loss but the full liabilities from the previous markets which make the liability huge after 3 goals scored.

I attached the trigger so if somebody could help me to remember just the effective loss and not the full previous liabilities.

Thank you in advance.

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #26 on: 03 Mar 2013, 23:39 »
Hi
The “effective loss” on each selection is total lay matched minus total back matched on that selection, which you would calculate after the distribute loss trigger. So the idea is to set a user variable which will store the projected loss for each selection.
Value: lay_matched - back_matched
Conditions should include:
Conditions specific for the market and selection
And selections lay matched is greater than 0
And selections back matched is greater than 0

then use the user variable value in the next lay trigger
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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #27 on: 03 Mar 2013, 23:43 »
Thank you for your answer.
Let me play around with it and I will let you know how it works.

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #28 on: 06 Jun 2013, 23:12 »
hi,

I could not implement the effective loss on it. Have you done it? If yes could you attach the latest version here. I just wanted to try it.

Thanks..

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Re: Over under martingale
« Reply #29 on: 22 Jun 2013, 04:41 »
Here is some of my triggers used at that time.
I don't remember which one is working perfect because I did not use MF lately.
Test them and see which one is working fine.

 

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