Author Topic: over/under scalp method help wanted  (Read 16733 times)

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over/under scalp method help wanted
« on: 17 Dec 2013, 14:23 »
Hi All,

I would like help with the design of a trigger to scalp the under/over market
on football. On the surface it appears a simple strategy based on an even simpler assumption and that is when a goal is scored the overs odds contract and the unders odds expand. However, it is a lot more complicated than at first thought with the advent of market suspensions due not only to goals being scored but issue of red cards, penalties, off side and all other niggling things that set off the Betfair suspension trigger. As a result the odds move around a lot, creating a temporary false market.
My so called simple strategy is as follows:
a) When a goal is scored place a back bet on the unders after a period of say 20
    seconds to allow the market to settle down.
b) greenup after x ticks
c) repeat the process.
The theory behind this is quite basic. When betting unders the odds slowly contract as time passes until the next goal is scored or the match ends.
So in theory one should be able to green up after one or two ticks quite easily.

The trickier part where "suspended" markets is concerned is to distinguish between a valid goal being scored and the myriad of other events that trigger off the "suspended" sign which ultimately throws up a false market, hence foiling any attempts to greenup as the market odds on unders will expand to odds on offer prior to the "suspension", after which a losing bet is the likely result.
As I see it a greenup bet would not be matched only due to the non goal "suspension" in which case a distribute loss would take place.
To summarise:
a) place a back bet on unders after a valid goal is scored and market settles down.
b) greenup as odds ultimately shorten, provided "A" is strictly adhered to.
c) repeat process.
d) In the event of a falsely triggered back bet place then distribute loss after x ticks.
I hope this is clear and please point out any flaws in my theory and all help together with questions and comments most appreciated
Thanks
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #1 on: 17 Dec 2013, 14:52 »
I have studied this particular market for many years. The market only settles down after a much longer period than twenty seconds. The actual length depends on what can be seen on a TV screen. A team attacking strongly after just scoring a goal in a fast and furious game affects the market in a different way to a goal scored in a boring defensive game where a team has managed to score just at the time you felt you were going to fall asleep :)

The Betfair guy who suspends the markets can, and often does, suspend the market for no good reason.

One question springs to mind immediately - why wait for a goal to be scored ? The market moves in the expected direction if no goals are scored and scalping may be done from the beginning of the game.

I have thought deeply about automating this market but have failed. This is not just because of my lack of expertise in using this software but also because the market has so many associated problems/difficulties which are out of our control.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #2 on: 17 Dec 2013, 15:25 »
Hi
Here is a trigger file you can play with. It was first made to your spec, but since Nigel’s post I have changed it slightly.
It will operate in any Over/Under market and works much better with decent liquidity.

In the constants you can set:
Wait until a goal to scalp =1 OR Immediate scalp =0
Stop loss ticks
Green-up ticks
Max gap ticks between back and lay prices
Minutes since last suspension to activate bets (excluding initial back on immediate scalp)

Please use test mode.

While writing this post the trigger gained 8 ticks, so the green-up works ok on immediate scalp. I'll leave the rest of the testing to you. Good luck.
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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #3 on: 17 Dec 2013, 17:07 »
Hi Nigel,

Thanks for your kind contribution. I am impressed with your perseverance in the study of the overs/under markets for "several years". At the same time it casts doubt on this particular market being a viably profitable betting proposition given your "failed" efforts to date coupled with the hindrances of a "suspended" market. If anything, I have learned that sudden price movements are less often goal related. One question begs, can we embrace "suspended" markets as a friend ? Are there ways of capitalising on suspended markets ? Maybe a few wise gurus on the forum could lend us all a hand here and enlighten us. PLEASE!!
Thanks
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #4 on: 17 Dec 2013, 17:52 »
Hi Mar,

Thanks for this trigger.
I'm not quite sure about the distribute loss if goal trigger but once
I test it I'm sure it will all fall into place
Cheers
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #5 on: 17 Dec 2013, 17:54 »
I only trade the Over 2.5 Market when I am able to see the game live on TV. I am very careful in my choice of games, and enter the market at different stages of the game depending on what I see. I am reasonably successful and that is why I persevere with it, however, all my efforts at automation have come to nothing. The suspension is unquestionably no friend. The markets are suspended about five seconds earlier than any possible reason for this suspension is visible on my HD TV screen and this leads to false hopes of a goal being scored. I think I have counted as many as five suspensions without a goal in a period of play.

The market may be suspended simply because of Betfair losing their feed to a game. I call the guy who suspends the market "The Betfair Dummy" and that accurately reflects my views of his competence. Any suspension screws up the automation of this market as it takes time for the market to form again and this time can vary enormously.

I use another proprietary software for my trading in this market and a sound resembling a fire siren is made at suspension. I love to hear this sound when goals are due to be seen on my TV but it can be very frustrating when the dummy suspends for non-valid reasons.

If the market was only suspended when a goal was scored, automation would be achievable and useful and I would work harder to implement this. As things are, I consider automation of this market to be far too risky.

As a general point, not one directly related to the subject of this thread, I will say that I tend only to back Overs and mostly when the odds are high ( To me anything over 2.3 at kick off is counted as high.) I cannot understand how anybody can say with certainty that there will be less than 3 goals in any game. The higher the odds they offer, the more attractive is the price as far as I am concerned. When all is said and done, the objective of a football team is to score goals.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #6 on: 17 Dec 2013, 18:47 »
Hi
Small edit to the distribute loss trigger. Latest file attached.
Please use test mode.
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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #7 on: 17 Dec 2013, 19:08 »

Any suspension screws up the automation of this market as it takes time for the market to form again and this time can vary enormously.


The suspension - could that give opportunity's for you to get odds to you favor, before the markets has formed?

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #8 on: 17 Dec 2013, 19:11 »
The suspension - could that give opportunity's for you to get odds to you favor, before the markets has formed?

Certainly not ! God only knows what odds will be available following a suspension and you are completely unable to set them yourself.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #9 on: 17 Dec 2013, 19:47 »
Hi
I think there may be something in what tupp suggests.
If you offer non-greedy, but value prices in your favour immediately after a suspension, you may, or may not get matched. But there will be plenty of people / bots looking to distribute loss or stop-loss, sometimes at any price and you may get matched.
 
In my view, the biggest problem with automated scalping soccer markets is your opening bet is exposed for the full duration of the time it takes for the price to change in your favour. Really you want to have an open trade only for as short a time as you can. Maybe try and gauge this using WOM at best back and best lay price. This will only work in high volume markets, and may still be subject to market manipulators, plus you need to take into account the in-play delay for placing bets.
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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #10 on: 17 Dec 2013, 20:02 »
The way to test this is to watch the prices when a market "reforms". Weight of money and liquidity are very important. Opportunities exist fleetingly and normally disappear before the time delay in getting bets matched is over.

The main danger of automating this is the rigidity placed by the bot. I feel that the opportunities you mention do occur sometimes but they can only be seized by manual placement and a great deal of good luck.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #11 on: 17 Dec 2013, 20:05 »
The way to test this is to watch the prices when a market "reforms". Weight of money and liquidity are very important. Opportunities exist fleetingly and normally disappear before the time delay in getting bets matched is over.

The main danger of automating this is the rigidity placed by the bot. I feel that the opportunities you mention do occur sometimes but they can only be seized by manual placement and a great deal of good luck.
100% agree. No two trades (scalps) are the same.
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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #12 on: 17 Dec 2013, 23:41 »
Hi Mark & All,

I have had a closer look at the trigger and I have to say a lot of thought and effort went into designing that one.
I appreciate the option of selecting either the scalp before goal or after goal. I don't have much faith in the former however this is a gut reaction and open to persuasion :)
I am wondering if you guys can suggest a fair guesstimate on time after a suspension ?
The changing of the scoreboard does help but only if it is accurate and not always the case. Unfortunately the margins if any are so small that even one error be it Betfair, computer or internet or even moi (God forbid), would potentially wipe out any small profits one could muster for a day.
There is no exact science to this and I can see if one was to automate this market then everything needs to be carefully taken into account and best estimates used where necessary. At best it is a fragile way to make a profit.
I am ever hopeful and look forward to some more input from others if you would kindly volunteer.
Many thanks for comments to date and thanks to Mark for the latest trigger.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #13 on: 18 Dec 2013, 09:58 »
I am wondering if you guys can suggest a fair guesstimate on time after a suspension ?
Hi
It depends on the market you are trading. A high profile game will reform within seconds. Some games take ages. If you look at some posts on here related to the subject, it varies between 45secs to 2mins.
you could make an IF expression for this:
and markets minutes since last suspension is greater than IF(market_volume>500000, 1, 2)

A better way is to put in conditions that suit your purpose, and dispense with mins since last suspension. For scalping, this has to be gap between best lay and best back. But again as mentioned, the gap will become favourable more quickly in a higher liquidity market. To resolve this, you might use another trigger to offer prices in the gap if your green-up for a scalp is not fulfilled with a certain timeframe.
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Re: over/under scalp method help wanted
« Reply #14 on: 18 Dec 2013, 10:08 »
hi mark
you had the back trigger set to g_ticks 7
and the loss stop trigger set to gap_ticks
i have put the gap_ticks in the backing trigger and the sl_ticks in the loss trigger


mcbee
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