Author Topic: Pin-pointing any point in a race after the off.  (Read 1451 times)

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A while ago I was playing around with a betting strategy that required me to be able to reasonably accurately select a certain point in a horse race for placing bets. eg. 50% of the way through or 80% of the way through the race.
My strategy didn't work out, but I thought I would share how I made the calculation in-case anybody my need to do something similar, or maybe build a strategy around it.

So,  simply specifying a fixed time after the off was no good as the races are all different lengths.
This calculation is for Australian Gallops, but you can convert it to any racing with a little bit of research and adjustment.
What I needed to do is work out how many Metres per Minute on average the horses covered. For Aussie gallops it's roughly .0009  of course this changes a bit if you compare a short race (800-1000 metres) with a longer race (2000+ metres) but the average was close enough for my needs.

I set a constant called mpm  (minutes per metre) and set it to .0009

So if I wanted to determine when 80% of the race was for example, I would use the following trigger expression:

Market's Minutes since the off is greater than market_length*mpm*.8

Hope this is of help to somebody, not sure if this has been covered before as I am relatively new here.
If anybody manages to use this to make a killer trigger, then maybe share that with me..... Hahaha.  Jokes...Not!

Later..

Dean

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Re: Pin-pointing any point in a race after the off.
« Reply #1 on: 26 May 2014, 11:19 »
There used to be a trigger that Oxa wrote that determined the length of any race and allowed you to use the time since the off to ascertain what point in the race you where at.  I can't find it now but here's a link to the archived conversation about it.

http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggers-for-learning/determining-the-duration-of-a-race-and-time-left-till-the-end/?action=printpage

Maybe if you could find it this trigger it would help with your strategy as I recall it was a fairly accurate guide to what the point in the race was at any given time.

 

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