The Endless Staking Plan

Hi bobh,
I noticed by this thread you have opted for the Endless from the ones I suggested on a previous topic.
I had a lot of fun with it over the years using a manual approach and it can be a bit tricky adopting a trigger approach. I'm sure it can be done and no better than mcbee to help you.
I'd be interested in following your progress particularly if you have a decent strike rate and roi.
It won't turn a losing system into a winning one as I may have mentioned but you will get a long run for your money...... and hopefully a good profit.
best of luck
R

hi
it is my fault, with it been a recovery plan, i should have included a trigger to delete any market until the last market is settled.
i will make adjustments, test and post the trigger here.

if you want to see the bm matched price, you still need to add the selection index.
most times the selection is within the first 10, so in the variable screen type
s_1_bm_backp
s_2_bm_backp
do this up to s_10_bm_backp
and then you will see what selection has the matched bet price


mcbee

hi
i have added a delete trigger so if the last race has no result then the next race will be deleted until the result is in and recorded.

please use test mode

mcbee

download the trigger below

Thanks mcbee.

I will test it tomorrow.

bobh

Hi again mcbee,

I will test again today, but unfortunately it appears the regression trigger is still not working.

In my user variables screen I had b and p showing.

Immediately after a result was posted, and in the case of a winner, both variables were correct (ie b showed the next step in the progression and p showed the integer price of the winner), but as soon as the next race trigger was due to fire (0.10 mins before the start), p went to zero, hence b-p did not work, and the next bet was simply the next in the progression. So it may just need a minor adjustment to the placement of the b-p trigger.

I will try it again today, and if possible, will screenshot both before and after races to show the above anomaly. But I am not sitting in front of the computer all the time, so cannot guarantee that I will be able to achieve this, but will try to do so.

bobh

And again mcbee,

In my search for the reasons the trigger is not working, I noticed that the variable "new_statement" never moved from 1 at any time. In looking in the manual under "Win/Lose History", there is a comment on that variable which says "This variable is outdated and no longer supported. Use relevant trigger conditions etc.........."

Could this be a contributing factor to the reasons for the trigger having difficulty?

Just a thought.

bobh

hi
the new statement can only be 0 or 1, 1 been a new statement.
i will re-test the trigger, but my previous test worked ok, so i will see what could be the problem.


mcbee

Ok, I think it is solved!

I could not work out why variable p kept resetting to zero, but eventually saw that trigger 2 - Reset record price needed a condition to tell it that the last race was not a winner, so I added the condition selections trigger expression last_pl is less than 0, and it seems to be now working correctly.

If you think that is not correct, please advise, but right now, all seems to be OK.

Thanks for your help,

bobh

Hi bobh,

Do you mind attaching the latest version of your trigger?

Thanks in advance!

JohnBJ,

Trigger is attached with my amendment.

It is working fine.

bobh

hi bobh,

How is the system holding up ? is your strike rate still quite strong ?
Also curious to know if the endless staking plan is suitable.
Cheers and continuous profitability.
R

Thanks for your continued interest RP.

The strategy is running at POT 13.5% and ave price of $4.85, and appears to have settled at around those figures. Strike rate is 23.4%.

I ran a simulation using Endless Staking Plan and very quickly realised my heart would not stand the strain, as there would be periods of long losing streaks where losses were substantial. Even though a long priced winner would rescue the strategy, it really would take a lot of heart to continue when a losing streak of 30+ is in play.

I now believe my system is most suited to level stakes, and will continue testing on that basis.

However, I simulated Endless on another of my strategies from the past, where strike rate was in the 30%+, and it has been brilliant, so far. In an early sample, it has produced a higher POT at lower ave odds, with one bet per race.

So it seems to me that Endless is more suited to a high strike rate system.

I will continue assessing both systems and put the results up in this thread from time to time.

bobh

Hi bobh,
I was a staking plan fanatic in my early days of punting, several decades ago.
However after being involved with stats guys for the past 25 or so years I have
been beaten into submission with constant haranguing from them about the flawed theories in proportional staking. Nowadays I use level stakes for everything.
I do know one thing for certain, no staking plan will turn a losing level stakes method into a winning one. As yours is winning at a good roi % your decision to bet level stakes is very sensible.
may it continue to profit.
To those of you thinking of using staking plans or already experimenting with them don't waste your time and money. Betting banks can be hard to come by and senseless to blow them on a long losing run. MFP are a great source for triggers and a bit of tweaking can turn a profit at level stakes using a small % of your bank of no more than a flat 3% of your starting capital for each bet/race, and no more than 10% of your capital in any one day. Meaning if you had a horrendous day where everything went pear shaped you can still dust yourself down and spring back into action with 90% of your capital intact.
Cheers
R