Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds

hi
this trigger is on hold, due to me finding an error/bug when adding football markets manualy.


mcbee

hi
here is a trigger to use for this system.
in the constants you can set.
bet amount
minimum price for the 0 - 0
minimum price for the 0 - 10 minutes (first goal market)
green up percent
minutes before the statime to check and place the bet
Profit percent of the  bet amount  to go for in the first goal odds market
maximum minutes to try and green up , then take a loss

you will need to load and monitor the first goal odds and correct score markets USING THE MARKET LOCATOR or SOCCER (important,do not load any markets from soccer fixtures) before your set time to check/record the prices.

then the triggers if the prices are correct, place the bet in the first goal odds market, when this is fully matched the other trigger will place the bet in the correct score market.
if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes you will make the profit percent that you set (to high and the green up wont cover it, if there is no goal)
at the minutes after the startime that you set, the loss stop will come and reduce the loss amount, if no goal.

please use test mode until you are happy with your settings

mcbee

download the trigger below

hi
most first goal odds 0-10 are below 5, so there would be no bets made unless you altered the min to 3 or 4.
i will test again all day today and make sure that all is working ok.


mcbee

hi
i have tested, and all works as it should.
the only markets that did not have bets on were the ones with the first goal odds 0 - 10, because they were below the set price of 5.00.
also remember to load all the markets using the market locator or the soccer (NOT soccer-fixtures)
when loading from soccer-fixtures the market parent id is minus (another betfair cockup)

mcbee

hi
if you read all the posts, you would have seen this from the original poster.

I have realised that this or the other strategy in my head will not work/make money.

mcbee

Okay thanks.

I will be looking at games at monitoring the 0-0 CS odds in the first 10 mins, but does anyone know what the average tick drop is in the first 10 mins and some example of larger tick drops.

Fro mmy experience if you get 11.0 or greater at the start, you can get a 2 tick drop to 10.0
Another game I monitored, I backed at 15.0 and could lay at 13.5 (3 tick drop).

My thought on this was that we are looking at it the wrong way and should be doing the OPPOSITE of what was first suggested.

Lay both the 0-0 and First Goal 0-10min from the off, based on the selection criteria suggested.

Let me know your thoughts.

You might be right, I'll havwe to have a play with some realistic odds and suitable stakes.
I definitely think there is some value to be taken in the first 10 mins.

20% of premiership games have a goal in the first 10mins, 80% do not (based on 3 seasons of data).

30% of premiership games end 0-0 at HT (based on 8 seasons of data).

My thoughts here are if you can achieve (across all the games for the week) an average price of 5.2 or greater then you should back 0-10mins. If you cannot get an average price of 5.2 or greater then you leave.

Would be interesting to understand what the average price of 0-10mins is at the off for all premier league games...