Author Topic: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds  (Read 42466 times)

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Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« on: 20 Nov 2013, 14:15 »
Hi,

I have been noticing something for several months around getting free bets on the following.

1. Back correct score of 0-0. Make sure the odds are >= 10.0
2. Back First Goal Odds being 0 - 10 minutes. Make sure the odds are >= 5.0

As the game progresses the 0 - 0 odds drop allowing you to trade the position out assuming no goal has been scored.

You will need to calculate the back bet for each market and the amount to trade out on the 0 - 0 but you can do it so you always get a profit or at least a free bet.

Not all Soccer games have the First Goal Odds, so you will need to only pick games that do.

Cheers

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #1 on: 20 Nov 2013, 15:37 »
hi ybernet69
and wellcome to the forum.
thank you for your system information.
in the first 10 minutes how much does the 0 - 0 price drop, say from 13.00.
i am trying to make a trigger for this with the green up at 9.95 minutes after the start time.
but i need an average price drop, so that i can calculate the bet amounts for the 0 - 0 and the first goal.
if calculated correctly it looks like a guaranteed profit.

mcbee
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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #2 on: 20 Nov 2013, 15:52 »
hi ybernet69
and wellcome to the forum.
thank you for your system information.
in the first 10 minutes how much does the 0 - 0 price drop, say from 13.00.
i am trying to make a trigger for this with the green up at 9.95 minutes after the start time.
but i need an average price drop, so that i can calculate the bet amounts for the 0 - 0 and the first goal.
if calculated correctly it looks like a guaranteed profit.

mcbee
Hi,

It depends on the teams involved. I have seen it drop from 13.5 to 10.20 at around the 9 minute mark. I guess it should just trade out whatever the outcome as close to 10 minutes as possible. Allowing for betfair delays etc.

It needs to wait before betting on 0-0 until the bet on 0-10 minutes has been fully matched at >= 5

Thanks

Cyber

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #3 on: 20 Nov 2013, 16:00 »
hi
yes, i had it the other way round. make sure that the odds in the first goal market were 5 or more then place the bet on the 0 - 0, but i see now that the liquidity of the first goal market is low.
i am trying to get the first goal bet as low as possible compared to the 0 - 0 bet amount,so that the green up has a better chance of profit.
i am working on the idea of about 10% profit if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes or about 10% profit for the green up.
it will be a long time testing as there are very few markets with the first goal odds.

thanks again for the idea
mcbee
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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #4 on: 20 Nov 2013, 16:15 »
hi
yes, i had it the other way round. make sure that the odds in the first goal market were 5 or more then place the bet on the 0 - 0, but i see now that the liquidity of the first goal market is low.
i am trying to get the first goal bet as low as possible compared to the 0 - 0 bet amount,so that the green up has a better chance of profit.
i am working on the idea of about 10% profit if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes or about 10% profit for the green up.
it will be a long time testing as there are very few markets with the first goal odds.

thanks again for the idea
mcbee

The first goal market should appear on all UK Premiership games.

Strangely it was available on last nights England v Germany game which was a friendly.

I am guessing that it should appear on any countries top league. i.e. Germany, Spain, France, UK etc.

Thanks

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #5 on: 27 Nov 2013, 16:18 »
hi
here is a trigger to use for this system.
in the constants you can set.
bet amount
minimum price for the 0 - 0
minimum price for the 0 - 10 minutes (first goal market)
green up percent
minutes before the statime to check and place the bet
Profit percent of the  bet amount  to go for in the first goal odds market

you will need to load and monitor the first goal odds and correct score markets before your set time to check/record the prices.
then the triggers if the prices are correct, place the bet in the first goal odds market, when this is fully matched the other trigger will place the bet in the correct score market.
if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes you will make the profit percent that you set (to high and the green up wont cover it, if there is no goal)
at approx 10 minutes the loss stop will come and reduce the loss amount, if no goal.

please use test mode until you are happy with your settings

mcbee

download the trigger below
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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #6 on: 27 Nov 2013, 16:35 »
hi
here is a trigger to use for this system.
in the constants you can set.
bet amount
minimum price for the 0 - 0
minimum price for the 0 - 10 minutes (first goal market)
green up percent
minutes before the statime to check and place the bet
Profit percent of the  bet amount  to go for in the first goal odds market

you will need to load and monitor the first goal odds and correct score markets before your set time to check/record the prices.
then the triggers if the prices are correct, place the bet in the first goal odds market, when this is fully matched the other trigger will place the bet in the correct score market.
if there is a goal in the first 10 minutes you will make the profit percent that you set (to high and the green up wont cover it, if there is no goal)
at approx 10 minutes the loss stop will come and reduce the loss amount, if no goal.

please use test mode until you are happy with your settings

mcbee

download the trigger below

Many thanks for this. Your a star.

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #7 on: 28 Nov 2013, 09:40 »
Does anyone know where to get the prices of every premier league game at kick off for correct score market and first goal minute prices (without having the shift through Betfair history data OR pay using Time Machine)?

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #8 on: 28 Nov 2013, 11:23 »
My only other query is around the staking.

In the trigger it just has the formula which  produces the following for the first goal odds 0-10:

bet amount (ba)   2
percentage profit(pp)   10
back_price   5.2
commission   5%
   
(ba*(1+(pp/100))/(back_price-1))/(1-commission)   
   
 £0.55    



My thoughts were to have the staking which takes the prices of both markets and then works out the stake accordingly like the table below (I think I have done the calculations correctly?):

      Price 0-0 drops to @ 10mins:      10.0   
             price        stake               IF goal in 1st 10mins      If no goal in
    0-0       11.0        £25.00              -£25.00                   £23.75
    1st       5.2        £10.00                 £39.90                   -£10.00
               
      Profit                                              £14.90              £13.75


Is it just me being silly here and not understanding properly?

The Shakhter Karegand V PACK today at 3pm is the game which this can be tested on.
In my opinion the price of 0-0 in the correct score market only drops 1 to 2 ticks within the first 10minutes (3 if you are lucky).
I am basing my calculations on only 1 tick profit.


let me know your thoughts, I might be barking up the wrong tree completely.

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #9 on: 28 Nov 2013, 14:55 »
hi
i have based the amount on trying to get a profit or less loss in the first 10 minutes, goal or no goal.
the low first goal odds bet amount is so that the green up/distribute loss has chance to cover the lose, if there is no goal in the first 10 minutes.
your example looks good on paper.
BUT, if there is a goal at 10.01 or more minutes you LOSE, 25.00+10=35.00 pounds.
ok if there is no goal to the end of the match then your quids in (rare unless you choose the correct match every time).


mcbee
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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #10 on: 28 Nov 2013, 15:24 »
I agree.

I have just tried testing the trigger (in test) and it doesn't fire on the 'first goal odds bet matched' trigger.

It places the bet in the first goal odds market correctly, but it doesn't set the variable ok to 1, therefore doesn't place the best in the Correct Score market.
Hopefully the attached helps.

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #11 on: 28 Nov 2013, 15:49 »
hi
sorry, i changed the way the ok was recorded in the last minute before posting and was noughty by not testing the new addition  :(
selections back matched = (ba*(1+(pp/100))/(back_price-1))/(1-commission)
so the true back matched value(ba*(1+(pp/100))/(back_price-1))/(1-commission) = .643 but the bot back matched value =.64
result been the variable, ok , stayed at zero

mcbee

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #12 on: 28 Nov 2013, 16:27 »
Hi mcbee could you alter the trigger so that it lays instead of backs and also when using locator how can i just load the correct score and first goal odds without adding all markets in football
cheers Andrew

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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #13 on: 28 Nov 2013, 16:58 »
hi yorkiemac08
you cannot load the correct score and first goal odds together, because of the conditions for the correct score markets not having home/away etc and the condition for the first goal odds.
i found it better to load the first goal odds, first, then add the correct score markets manualy because there are not that many with first goal odds.
i am not sure that a lay version would be profitable, because if there were a goal in the first 10 minutes you would lose all, and there would be no situation for greening up as the back price keeps dropping as time goes on.


mcbee
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Re: Soccer Games 0 - 0 and First Goal Odds
« Reply #14 on: 28 Nov 2013, 17:03 »
Thanks McBee.

I do not want to use a greenup figure, so my thoughts were to just lay the price after 9.8minutes?
To do this can I just change the greenit trigger to:
lay lay_price amount ba
once per market
where market contains correct score
selections backed matched is greater than 0
markets minutes since off is greater than 9.8
markets minutes since off is less than 10.0

I want it to back 0-10 fgo at price greater than 5.0 and also 0-0 at 10.5 or greater for the set amounts, then at 9.8minutes into the game lay back.

I have realised that this or the other strategy in my head will not work/make money.

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE