Author Topic: time machine v's real trading  (Read 847 times)

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time machine v's real trading
« on: Sun, 08 May, 2016, 06:39 »
hi can someone help clear something up with me? i have been testing system based on market movements in horse racing on time machine and over a 14 day period (60 ish meatings) and the results were pretty impressive giving a nice profit most days and a great profit over all!
i tried the same system yesterday on the real markets and to my suprise it hardly picked up the set conditions and placed only a hand full of bets all day. and the ones it did didnt fare particularly well.

the thing is i then purchased yesterdays meetings on time machine and the system fared pretty well again!
hoe mite this be happening as its definately not a matching issue as all bets that were attempted got matched and in all honesty it lays at lay price and stakes were small so there would have been money in the markets to cover them.
if anyone can shed some light on this for me and help me understand the problem it would be greatly appreciated

thanks

  • Tim Vetrov
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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #1 on: Sun, 08 May, 2016, 08:54 »
Have you tried your system with test mode on live markets?
The results could be different if your system is depended on the amount offered, doesn't take into account in-play delay, etc.
Hard to say without seeing the triggers.
I'm happy to help Monday - Friday, 08:00-18:00 GMT
Буду раз помочь с понедельника по пятницу, 08:00-18:00 GMT

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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #2 on: Sun, 08 May, 2016, 14:28 »
hi no i am just trying with small stakes but i am going to record the races it places bets and the profit/loss and cross check it when i run the same markets on time machine, then i will be able to see what is going on with it.


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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 08 May, 2016, 15:08 »
hi
if your small stakes are below betfair minimum then there is a delay due to 3 bets having to be made to make 1 small bet, so this will affect the results of time machine/test mode verses live betting.

mcbee
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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #4 on: Mon, 09 May, 2016, 06:02 »
hi mcbee no there not that small they range from £15 up to £50 at the minute as the lay amount is increased depending on the price, and just to get an idea of the scale and to see the bets get matched

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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #5 on: Mon, 09 May, 2016, 09:23 »
Hi.my 10c:
I have noticed that there a more than a few considerations when trading on Time machine vs Real Mode.Mostly re timings in terms of delays between you and the BF exchange, refresh rates before and during in play, amounts offered as already pointed out, unmatched bets(huge consideration as you have to try and back/lay unmatched bets for roughly the same profit target as the original bet and that can really stuff you), suspended markets (this seems to happen every now and again without reason-some of the other contributors can probably comment more on that than me),the BF queue,racing seasons as well as Green up/Dist loss formulas-all the gotchas I can think of so far. I had a bot running in Time Machine that was an in play bot that seemed to print money but in real mode in the UK, despite using a cloud based machine (less than a millisecond ping time to the BF exchange), I took a bath.It took me quite a while and much refining to get a functioning bot that remotely resembled the original TM based version. It still is not that profitable but at least I don't get caned-which is not bad for a beginner (12 + months with MF Pro but a slow learner :)) So, in short,your strategy of running in test/real vs TM is a good one and has worked for me somewhat. There are many more contributors on here that will be better able to advise you than me but this has been my experience.
I will add for interest' sake that I have run punting systems in TM across 4 months or more of markets that seem to be big winners, only to watch them lose after 2 weeks (horribly) in real mode.It is a challenge..big time.I haven't given up yet but the ol hair is thinning :o ;) Hope that helps.All the best!

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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #6 on: Mon, 09 May, 2016, 09:41 »
thanks madalainoz, your trigger sounds much  more complicated than my simple thing, yes i was the same though i thought i had found my holy grail after weeks of testing but in real life disappointing really, that said it made small profit yesterday and i know there is not much chance of getting caught with my pants down so i will continue to run it in the next few days and see the difference via time machine,

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Re: time machine v's real trading
« Reply #7 on: Mon, 09 May, 2016, 11:16 »
Yer good god... if time machine was reliable i'd be a millionaire by now!