We have a lot in common. I do not believe in recovery systems either. Most of my trading is done in-running and my selections are made according to my perception of the form. As an example, I fancied Fennel Bay to run well today. He was caught just before the winning line but I had already "greened" so to see him lose was heart warming
Nothing like winning money on a losing horse, is there ?
I have spent many months trying to write triggers for the control of my selections. The unfortunate thing is that if one ever discovers a winning strategy asking for help by revealing the strategy on a forum is not necessarily the right way to go about things.
I have asked repeatedly on this forum to see if other MFP users live near me. On the basis of "two heads being better than one" I would hope to use somebody else's MFP skills and share my strategy with them. Nobody uses this product in South Wales, or, if they do, they do not use this forum.
So, I plod on. Your own strategy above may benefit by selecting first and second favourites ( comparatively low priced horses ) where the liability for the lay bet would not be huge and the effect of the "ratio" would be diminished.
Cheers !