Author Topic: Triggered Horse A v Horse B. Back and Lay then GreenUp  (Read 3558 times)

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Hi,

I have an idea I think should work. I suggest picking two horses in a race, One I want to back and One I want to lay.

I want a trigger to kick in and monitor their odds and ranks and then react accordingly.

For Example.

Horse A  I back at 4.0 Rank 2 with a £4 bet
Horse B  I lay    at 14  Rank 8 with an £8 bet.

Scenario 1
InRunning Horse A loses position and drifts to 8.0 (or double odds), then stop loss.
InRunning Horse B  gains position and steams to 7  (or half odds)   ,then stop loss.

Scenario 2

InRunning Horse A gains position and steams to Rank1-Leave alone unless scenario1.
InRunning Horse B gains position and steams in 7 (half odds), then stop loss.
                                            OR
InRunning Horse B loses position and drifts-Leave alone.


Any thoughts anybody has regarding this are surely welcome. I am unsure of many things, including what ratio of the back versus lay stakes to use and indeed if it will work acceptably at all. I am guessing there maybe should be a time after the off condition to put in for the stop loss etc. Unmatched bets could be a problem too.

In any case, it's open to anyone for a critique.

Oliver



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Re: Triggered Horse A v Horse B. Back and Lay then GreenUp
« Reply #1 on: 31 Aug 2013, 18:43 »
I wouldn't have a clue about writing the relevant triggers for this strategy. It does seem, however, that the strategy is unsound. Ultimately it all boils down to which horse you back and the one you decide to lay.I believe it is fair to say that this is a 50/50 situation. If you back/lay correctly you will certainly win, but backing a loser and laying a winner, and all points between, is fraught with danger.

I appreciate that specific bets will depend on the prices of the horses and that the staking amounts would have to be determined in accordance with these.

It's all very complicated. My experience of stop losses is that they rarely work in the fast moving horse racing markets. The imbalance in the staking amounts for back bets and the liabilities for lay bets causes further difficulty.It's not for me, I'm afraid. Probably just as well that I am too dull to write the triggers :)

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Re: Triggered Horse A v Horse B. Back and Lay then GreenUp
« Reply #2 on: 31 Aug 2013, 19:21 »
Thanks Nig,

I agree with you on most things. Manually, you would need two sets of eyes to follow this idea in real time 0.2 refresh.

The selection of the backs and lays will ultimately decide whether this works or not. That would be down to the bettor themselves.

The stop loss is a worry. I would like to see it included however. I find that I am quite good at backing horses who run well without necessarily winning, and the same goes for horses who I think won't win. However, I am spectacularly bad at greening up and often take totally the wrong gup price.

That's what lead me to this idea. I would envisage at least trebling my stake on a winning perfect outcome ( I am thinking laying double my back stake).

What I would like to do is cover some of my losses if things are not looking too good.

I don't believe in loss recovery either, but surely stop loss is achievable a large percentage of the time.

Thanks for you input
Oliver

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Re: Triggered Horse A v Horse B. Back and Lay then GreenUp
« Reply #3 on: 31 Aug 2013, 19:38 »
We have a lot in common. I do not believe in recovery systems either. Most of my trading is done in-running and my selections are made according to my perception of the form. As an example, I fancied Fennel Bay to run well today. He was caught just before the winning line but I had already "greened" so to see him lose was heart warming :) Nothing like winning money on a losing horse, is there ?

I have spent many months trying to write triggers for the control of my selections. The unfortunate thing is that if one ever discovers a winning strategy asking for help by revealing the strategy on a forum is not necessarily the right way to go about things.

I have asked repeatedly on this forum to see if other MFP users live near me. On the basis of "two heads being better than one" I would hope to use somebody else's MFP skills and share my strategy with them.  Nobody uses this product in South Wales, or, if they do, they do not use this forum.

So, I plod on. Your own strategy above may benefit by selecting first and second favourites ( comparatively low priced horses ) where the liability for the lay bet would not be huge and the effect of the "ratio" would be diminished.

Cheers !

 

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