Author Topic: Backing on an increased matched volume  (Read 3426 times)

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Backing on an increased matched volume
« on: Tue, 23 October, 2018, 08:04 »
The core idea of these triggers is to back on selections whose volume increased significantly over the specified period of time. The rest is adjustments for different types of sports and situations.

The triggers monitor all selections in a market (teams in football, horses in horse racing, greyhounds, etc.) and remember every one whose matched volume (the amount of money traded on them, in your currency units) has increased by a set amount over the set period of time. So, for example, if £5,000 or more was matched on any of them over 1 minute, it will qualify for a bet.

By the predefined time before the start of the event (or after the event, depending on your settings), the triggers place back Dutching bets on all qualifying selections.

Why would you want to bet on such selections? Because volume is a proven measure of bettors' enthusiasm towards a market participant: the greater the volume, the stronger the signal. In other words, someone knows something if they decided to pour their money into a particular selection, so why not try and join them?

Backing on an increased matched volume
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #1 on: Fri, 21 December, 2018, 05:09 »
Hi Oxa

Thanks for the trigger. 
Since matched volume on racing events very diversified it is difficult to set up one absolute value for all events. I wanted to change it to % from total market volume and use total_volume*0.05  for example but it did not work.
Furthermore, at that point, total volume is measured since it is constantly changing. 
Any ideas how to make this increased matched volume to link to total market volume?  
Also, I want to track volume % let's is selection matched volume of total matched increased by 1% how to capture that? Is any alternative to voldif_ trigger by something like %dif_ ? I could not find this in manual.

Thanks for the help,
Mikhail 

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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #2 on: Sat, 29 December, 2018, 12:41 »
You could also look for a huge spike in volume matched just before the off combined with a big jump or drop in price.
It my understanding that bookies will lay off liabilities on favs in the last couple of mins before the off.
The price should then slowly return to where it was before.

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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #3 on: Thu, 03 January, 2019, 18:33 »
Hi ChicagoBoy,

The variable for the market volume is (unsurprisingly) market_volume.

Therefore, if you want the trigger to act based on the percentage of the market volume rather than an absolute value, just change the corresponding trigger condition to:

and Selection's Trigger Expression voldif_increase_time is equal or greater than rel_increase*market_volume/100

Where rel_increase is the relative increase in volume in % of the total market volume.
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #4 on: Fri, 04 January, 2019, 00:21 »
Hi ChicagoBoy, The variable for the market volume is (unsurprisingly) market_volume. Therefore, if you want the trigger to act based on the percentage of the market volume rather than an absolute value, just change the corresponding trigger condition to: and Selection's Trigger Expression voldif_increase_time is equal or greater than rel_increase*market_volume/100 Where rel_increase is the relative increase in volume in % of the total market volume.


Hi Oxa,

Could you explain a little more about what this trigger expression is looking at ?

and Selection's Trigger Expression voldif_increase_time is equal or greater than rel_increase*market_volume/100

What would be the benefit for using this trigger? Is there a real benefit?

If i am using a Backing trigger that looks at the matched volume spike, would this trigger expression be of any use to me as a extra indicator that the selection is being backed or liked to win by a large punter just before the OFF.

Is there any way to make it useful for a backing trigger?

Any info on this would be great as i find match volume spikes is OK but its true this could be BOOKIES laying off just before the jump which does not really help in finding a true VOLUME SPIKE on a real winning horse chance.

Thanks :)
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #5 on: Mon, 07 January, 2019, 10:46 »
I do not have any statistics on tracking the increased volume as an indicator of the horse's better chances to win vs. others (although I hope to test one of such triggers as part of Triggers in Action).

You can experiment with this condition to see if it is of any use to you. But to answer your question:

Quote
what this trigger expression is looking at ?

This expression is looking for any selections whose volume has increased by at least the percentage specified in rel_increase (user-defined constant) over the number of minutes specified in increase_time (another constant).
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #6 on: Wed, 09 January, 2019, 09:08 »
I do not have any statistics on tracking the increased volume as an indicator of the horse's better chances to win vs. others (although I hope to test one of such triggers as part of Triggers in Action). You can experiment with this condition to see if it is of any use to you. But to answer your question:
Quote
what this trigger expression is looking at ?
This expression is looking for any selections whose volume has increased by at least the percentage specified in rel_increase (user-defined constant) over the number of minutes specified in increase_time (another constant).

Hi Oxa,

Thanks for the information.

This looks very interesting to me i would be willing to test it on Horse racing in with a trigger i like. I just purchased your 2 for 1 subscription deal so i now have plenty of time to test my ideas.

I need some help with this trigger expression:

any selections whose volume has increased, lets say 10%

over the number of minutes, lets say 5 minutes

Thanks :)
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #7 on: Mon, 14 January, 2019, 00:57 »
Hi Oxa,

Thanks for this interesting post and the triggers to implement it!

You write:

"Why would you want to bet on such selections? Because volume is a proven measure of bettors' enthusiasm towards a market participant: the greater the volume, the stronger the signal. In other words, someone knows something if they decided to pour their money into a particular selection, so why not try and join them?"

The flip side is of course the opposite may be the case!

That is: why is someone keen to LAY the bet at that price unless they also know something?

I am curious to test whether the smart money is on the BACK side or the LAY side.

How could I modify your triggers to LAY the selections instead of BACK them?

Is it enough to just modify the 'backing' trigger by simply changing the setting from Dutch Back to Dutch Lay?

Any pitfalls I need to watch out for?

Thanks for any advice!

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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #8 on: Mon, 14 January, 2019, 01:37 »
Hi Oxa, Thanks for this interesting post and the triggers to implement it! You write: "Why would you want to bet on such selections? Because volume is a proven measure of bettors' enthusiasm towards a market participant: the greater the volume, the stronger the signal. In other words, someone knows something if they decided to pour their money into a particular selection, so why not try and join them?" The flip side is of course the opposite may be the case! That is: why is someone keen to LAY the bet at that price unless they also know something? I am curious to test whether the smart money is on the BACK side or the LAY side. How could I modify your triggers to LAY the selections instead of BACK them? Is it enough to just modify the 'backing' trigger by simply changing the setting from Dutch Back to Dutch Lay? Any pitfalls I need to watch out for? Thanks for any advice!

Hi Benko,

I have tried it a few different ways and it comes out about the same as if you simply had random rank picks as your selector. It is nothing more than an indicator which needs to blend in with others you might be running, and even then does it really help in a liquid fast pace market i don't think so. There are so many different factors driving the prices along with market manipulation it is truly chaos really.

I think Oxa should look at a chaos theory system of triggers to try out for 7 days can't really hurt, especially for horse racing as other sports are completely different, and maybe indicators work a little better there.

To truly say you have a winning trigger on horse racing would have to place you up in the genius categories as trying to find a way to harness chaos outcomes every race is quite possibly the holy grail of punting on animals who run races with humans on their backs lolol  Good luck with your testing :)
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Re: Backing on an increased matched volume
« Reply #9 on: Mon, 14 January, 2019, 03:54 »
Thnx bonecrusher,

 I think I posted to the wrong thread (groan!)

Your observations are I think spot on. 
I have been running the suggested back trigger on AUS races and after 475 back bets it shows the same loss on turnover as a random-pick bettor would have experienced.

It reinforces my belief that it is difficult or maybe impossible to win without domain knowledge.

Manipulating various progressions and number combinations looking for 'signs and portents' in the numbers
themselves may be quite futile.