Triggers in Action — a new high-scale, transparent strategy-testing project

This is the first Trigger in Action that is based on the report from our soon-to-be-released new service BFStats. This service will test some predefined and bespoke strategies in different types of sports against historical market data and allow you to use several filters to find the optimal combination that will bring you the maximum profit.

I tested the common sense idea of backing on the horse whose matched volume percentage has increased the most over the few minutes before the start of the race.

Prior to actually testing this idea with triggers, as part of the BFStats service, we prepared a report based on 130,000 races whose historical data we have acquired under BetFair's Historical Data Licence. It's the same historical data as used in our Time Machine.


After I'd got the impressive backtesting data, I put together a simple set of triggers:

At 10 minutes before the start of a race (any race), remember every selection's volume %. The latter is the amount of money matched on each selection divided by the total amount of money matched in the market. All markets with less than £1,000 in matched money are deleted automatically.

At 6 seconds before the off, back at SP on the selection whose volume% has increased the most. Again, it's not the absolute amount of money increased we're talking about, it's the increase in the relative share of the market. If you look at the statements available for download below, you will notice that the greatest profits were resulting from bets on underdogs.

That's it: flat stakes, no loss recovery, no fiddling with trading out to reduce the loss! And yet it's working!

Backing on the selection with the greatest increase in matched volume%

Hello OXA! Hope you are well..!

Interested in trying this service... have just subscribed to the newsletter as directed......

Thanks

Matt

Hello OXA! Hope you are well..! Interested in trying this service... have just subscribed to the newsletter as directed...... Thanks Matt

Thanks Matt. If you're subscribed to our newsletter, you'll know as soon as we've released the service. There will be a promotion for the first clients.

Hi Oxa,

This is an interesting trigger.

In your "backing trigger"

backing on selections with the greatest volume growth  -   you use LAST MATCHING SELECTION

Question: How would you select the 3rd greatest volume growth  or  2nd greatest volume growth?

This might be useful also with the info from your new stats service. Your stats service will be a wealth of knowledge!!!

backing on selections with the greatest volume growth  -   you use LAST MATCHING SELECTION

Thank you for noticing this.

The Last Matching Selection picks the last selection in the list sort by volume-old_vlm, i.e. the least volume difference comes first, so we need to pick the last selection, with the greatest volume.

To select the N'th greatest volume, you will need to add the following condition after Selection's Sorting Order is defined by volume-old_vlm:

and Selection's Trigger Expression match_index is equal to matching_number - N

Thanks Oxa for the explanation and new trigger condition to try out.

Best Regards Sean

Oxa

I have recently set this trigger up on demo.  Haven't changed any settings yet there are no trades in a week?  Is anyone else having any issues with it.

Looking forward to your new stats service as I have tried to build triggers in the past using historical data but it looks like your service will take that to a whole new level.

Paul

Oxa I have recently set this trigger up on demo. Haven't changed any settings yet there are no trades in a week?

Hello!

Make sure that you can see volume under your account, i.e. that it is not getting delayed data.

Please open any market's information and check for the red text attached in the screenshot.

If this is not the case, then check the log of the betting trigger for any reasons why it might not be placing bets.

Another cue from BFStats - a coming-soon statistics-based strategy testing service!

It is super simple:

Lay flat stakes on reserve runners just before the start of the race. I suggest 1% of your bank, but that can be easily adjustable in the constants.

A reserve runner is a dog that replaced a previously withdrawn runner. It has a (Res) label next to its name.



Using the constants, you can also enable a simple profit accumulator plan where each next bet is multiplied by the specified number for a predefined number of steps.

What makes it interesting is the selection criteria for the markets where to lay. 

Tested for 29 active days (i.e. days when at least 1 bet was made) with the following results:



Intrigued? Read on!

Laying on reserve Greyhounds

Hi Oxa,

Is BFStats ready yet?

I believe this along with the abilty to get live stats about football games would change out BOTS and make them profitable.

Thank you

This time, a low-liability, low-risk profit accumulator strategy for football. It is based on the assumption that the chance of another goal towards the end of a football match is low enough to try and back the Under x.5 goals and take advantage of the price while it is still high.

1. If the teams have not scored any goals by the 69th minute of the match, back on Under 1.5 goals.
2. If the teams scored only one goal by the 73rd minute of the match, back on Under 2.5 goals.

You can theoretically back in both markets of the same game, but I would say this is extremely rare.

The triggers include a simple profit accumulator plan, with the next X bets after the profit are multiplied by a set number, then the bet is reverted to its original size.

Read the full report below:

Backing on Under 1.5 and Under 2.5 goals in the second half of a football match

Hi Oxa, Is BFStats ready yet? I believe this along with the abilty to get live stats about football games would change out BOTS and make them profitable. Thank you

No, BFStats is not ready yet. We will announce it on a separate forum.

Hi. Would you be able to test the Over/Under Martingale trigger again at some point? I have tried it several times, each of these with very different (much worse) results than you. Thanks, Thomas 

Hi. Would you be able to test the Over/Under Martingale trigger again at some point? I have tried it several times, each of these with very different (much worse) results than you. Thanks, Thomas

Hello!

Unfortunately, at the moment I have different priorities. 

I have been trying the "Greatest volume pc change" trigger in test mode. Ire and Usa have shown a profit but AUS has been doing best. Because Aus is my home I have a good knowledge of how the markets work here. I made one change to limit the back_price to 4.0 or upwards and that improved it considerably. I made another which sent it ballistic.
So far 170 selections with a 25% win rate and a profit of 832 starting with the 10 bet as shown in the original example. Early days but sensational so far.