Author Topic: Triggers in Action — a new high-scale, transparent strategy-testing project  (Read 30393 times)

Tags:
  • All members
  • Posts: 52
After 1200 bets and a few minor tweaks this method is showing a 21% hit rate and 20% pot. 
Not too shabby.

  • All members
  • Posts: 57
  • Gender: Male
Hello OXA... I´ve been trying the trigger dutch_lay_favs and it´s working (some faultys - I open a post to related those)....

Now, is it possible to add a stoploss based in the % of liability? If we have a 100£ of liability, when 50£ of losses is reached then distribute those losses for all horses.

Another thing that I would like to try is to close the dutch at the start of the race and distribute the losses for all horses. I mean, don´t let the ducth go in-play and close all the bets.

Thank you for your attention.....


  • All members
  • Posts: 2
Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator ....So,that means to back a horse in the market "to be placed" when his odd in that market is >=1.6??

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8937
  • Gender: Female
*
Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator ....So,that means to back a horse in the market "to be placed" when his odd in that market is >=1.6??

Yes, that's right.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8937
  • Gender: Female
*
Hello OXA... I´ve been trying the trigger dutch_lay_favs and it´s working (some faultys - I open a post to related those).... Now, is it possible to add a stoploss based in the % of liability? If we have a 100£ of liability, when 50£ of losses is reached then distribute those losses for all horses. Another thing that I would like to try is to close the dutch at the start of the race and distribute the losses for all horses. I mean, don´t let the ducth go in-play and close all the bets. 

Hi! Yes, it is possible to customise your triggers. Please make a trigger request.

Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8937
  • Gender: Female
*
This is yet another Trigger in Action inspired by a BFStats report. The idea came to me a few months ago when I noticed a downtrend in the last traded price of a dog with the greatest matched volume.

Backing on the dog with the greatest volume at X minutes before the race

I wanted to find out how likely it is that, if a back on a greyhound with the maximum matched volume, its price will steadily decline in the last few minutes before the off, allowing enough margin to green it up to an equal profit.

This testing session had two strategy pivots along the line, so let me give you the breakdown of all three strategies tested. You will find the triggers implementing all three strategies down the next section.

Strategy 1
Back on the dog with the greatest matched volume percentage at 3 minutes before the start of the race. Trade it out with a lay bet at exactly the scheduled start time of the race. 

Strategy 2a
Back on the dog with the greatest matched volume percentage at 2 minutes before the start of the race. Leave the bet there no matter where the price goes.

Strategy 2b
Using Market Locator, filter out markets with a predefined list of distances, as selected using the BFStats report. Back on the dog with the greatest matched volume percentage at 2 minutes before the start of the race. Leave the bet there no matter where the price goes.



Testing period
17 days, from 07/06/2022 to 24/06/2922
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

  • All members
  • Posts: 1
Can you tell me if the following trigger is possible to be made?

its a cross market trigger on the half time football markets..

if there is more money matched on the over 1.5 half time market than there is on the over 0.5 half time market and at least £5,000 matched on the over 1.5 half time market then id like to back the 0.5 half time at odds of 1.5 in 10 installments of £2.50 when the price has increased every 5 ticks

  • Tim Vetrov
  • Administrator
  • Posts: 4711
  • Gender: Male
*
Can you tell me if the following trigger is possible to be made? its a cross market trigger on the half time football markets.. if there is more money matched on the over 1.5 half time market than there is on the over 0.5 half time market and at least £5,000 matched on the over 1.5 half time market then id like to back the 0.5 half time at odds of 1.5 in 10 installments of £2.50 when the price has increased every 5 ticks
Yes, it's could be done with triggers.
Proud to be 🇺🇦
I'm happy to help Monday - Friday, 08:00-18:00 GMT
Буду рад помочь с понедельника по пятницу, 08:00-18:00 GMT

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8937
  • Gender: Female
*
Here is what we will be proving or disproving:

Back on the Away team in football Match Odds at 5th minute of the match if the Away team’s share of matched bets is 16% or greater from the total market volume and if the Draw’s share of matched bets is below 10%. The Away team’s price should be in the range of 1.1 to 3.05.

As always, we are testing on a remote VPS that you can also get for yourself from BetVPS.

We started the testing a few days ago and will aim to keep testing this strategy every day for at least 10 days in a row. We will be recording the profits and losses from flat stakes (no loss recovery) of 1% of the available funds.

At the end of the testing period, we will publish the details report with our findings.

Test along! Use the triggers below to test this strategy along with us! It will be interesting to compare results:

Download the trigger set

Disclaimer: we may and usually do tweak some of the trigger settings as we test, to try and achieve the optimal results. We disclose these adjustments in the final report.

As with the several previous Triggers in Actions, this idea is based on the market analysis that we have carried out using the historical market data we purchased from BetFair. We will be creating a BFStats report with thousands of markets for you to play with and to tweak price, volume, minute of the match, etc.

Stay tuned!
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8937
  • Gender: Female
*
This is our new statistics-based trigger testing report, this time for Match Odds football markets.

Pick football Match Odds markets with at least £3,000 in matched volume at the start of the event.

At the 5th minute of a football match, place a back bet on the Away* team if its price is between 1.1 and 3.05 and matched volume percentage** is at least 14%, whereas the Draw's volume percentage is below 10%. 

For the purposes of validating purely the assumptions in this strategy, we are using flat stakes, therefore, there will be no loss recovery, although you can turn in on in the trigger constants.

*The Away team will always come as the second selection in the Match Odds market.

**The matched volume percentage is the share of the total amount of matched bets placed in the market. 

Almost everything about this strategy is flexible, meaning you can adjust the type of bet, size, price range, type of selection to bet on, etc. in the trigger constants.

Here is what has come out of it:

Testing Period: 15 days, from 14/10/2022 to 29/10/2022
Starting Bank:   1,000
Final Bank:   1,100.15
Total P/L:   100.15
ROI:      8.60%



Read the complete report with downloadable triggers and account statements here:

Backing the Away team in a football Match Odds market based on the Draw's volume
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE