Author Topic: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL  (Read 17577 times)

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #15 on: 07 Oct 2015, 15:46 »
Currently on a win streak of about 50 with this trigger... streak before that was 20... gotta say I am a little bit impressed.


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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #16 on: 07 Oct 2015, 15:47 »
Currently on a win streak of about 50 with this trigger... streak before that was 20... gotta say I am a little bit impressed.



We're glad you're enjoying it... :)

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #17 on: 07 Oct 2015, 15:49 »
Spoke to soon... win streak JUST came to an end as I posted that ... hahahaha!

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #18 on: 07 Oct 2015, 19:10 »
I'm impressed too! The ROI is better with version 2, my ROI per day is arround 16%.  ;D

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #19 on: 07 Oct 2015, 19:16 »
Hi,

I just watched the video on YouTube. It is clear that this system is flawed.

After a loss on the 29thJuly, your system quadrupled its next bet and layed a horse at 12.0, risking almost half the available balance.

Again, after a loss on 30thJuly, you layed £3.71 on a greyhound race matched at 17.0 thereby risking £59.36 from a balance of only £121.53

And the final nail in the coffin as far as I am concerned, after another loss later that day you layed £7.94 at 8.60 in a greyhound race. The greyhound was the 2nd Fav on ISP prices at 4/1 and you layed it at 15/2!!!!

Thanks for wasting my time with this nonsense

Larp

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #20 on: 07 Oct 2015, 19:31 »
The liability this trigger can sometimes produce is very alaming...

The strike rate is so high that it may be an idea to split the amount to recover over a user adjustable amount say 5 - 10 bets instead of just one which is what it seems to what to do at the moment.

Thereby massively reducing the liability...

I admit risking half the bank on a bet is crazy...

PetBet what say you?

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #21 on: 07 Oct 2015, 22:32 »
Yes, have to agree.
I trialled it yesterday and the libility risk was too far out of my comfort zone.
I had the risk at 0.1% yes 0.001 of my bank and I still had a bet risking 3% of my bank which I am not comfortable with. I may try it again after reading more.
Improvise Adapt Overcome

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #22 on: 08 Oct 2015, 07:09 »
Hi,
I have written posts on here in the past of the fallacy of staking plans.
In short they do NOT work over the longer term. Please be aware that unless
a betting system shows a profit to level stakes it is doomed to failure. Any
mathematician worth their salt will tell you this. I had been down this road for 30 years testing every staking theory under the sun and thankfully only testing. The only time they have any chance is to enhance a betting method that already profits using level stakes. Kelly Criterion springs to mind and is used by professional computer betting teams. It may be a bitter pill to swallow but I urge you please swallow it and utilise your time in more productive pursuits.
I believe Petbet is sincere in his approach and would like to see him come back on here with a level stakes winner. Keep striving.
R
 
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #23 on: 08 Oct 2015, 10:37 »
Hi all and ty for your comments.

I think a little bit of clarification is needed at this point.

Like any other bot, petBet is not supposed to work standing alone and always winning. You cannot put the bot to run, go on holidays, and hope that when you return you'll have the money to pay them. PetBet, as any other bot and given enough time, will eventually lose. That's not the point. The point is that when that happens the balance was multiplied by 3, 4 or even 10 its original value.

If you bet on a coin flip paying a 2 odd of winning, your expected profit will be zero no matter how hard you try. As expected profit, I mean the profit you will probably have after a large number of flips. But you the coin is unbalance, and the probability of tails is, for instance, 60% while the paying odd is still 2, then you will have a positive expected profit (as long as you bet tails, of course).
All the testing we've done with this trigger lead to the same result: the probability of doubling your balance is much greater than the probability that the trigger bursts before the balance doubles.

How should one use the trigger then? Well, that is kind of a personal strategy, but here is what I do: I start with a value, say 100, and wait for it to double (depending on the configuration, it takes 2 to 4 days). When it does, I withdrawal the 100 I started with and repeat the process. After recovering my initial investment and if I'm feeling lucky, I wait a little bit more and get some more money. When the trigger bursts (and believe me, it will),
I start over again.

Can I lose money? Sure!! This is gambling!! But the odds are that I win.

In petBet version 1 we implemented an aggressive way to recover the losses and a conservative way of choosing the bet; in petBet version 2 we implemented a softer way of recovering and a less conservative choose - and the results are very good indeed.
We are now working in version 3, that will allow the user to implement planned  withdrawals, to make the trigger more autonomous.

A final note for the purists: the trigger doesn't know nothing about horses or greyhounds! It sees only varying odds and runners, and uses this information only to decide the bet.

Thank you all,
the petBet team.

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #24 on: 08 Oct 2015, 20:56 »
"Can I lose money? Sure!! This is gambling!! But the odds are that I win."

Again I repeat, if you cannot win using level stake betting you will most definitely not win long term using a chasing losses strategy. The problem you face petbet is the likelihood that a series of capital wipeouts will appear in succession thereby losing all the banks that have been set aside. Can you not work on trying to improve your model so it turns a profit at level stakes ?
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #25 on: 09 Oct 2015, 19:28 »
"Can I lose money? Sure!! This is gambling!! But the odds are that I win."

Again I repeat, if you cannot win using level stake betting you will most definitely not win long term using a chasing losses strategy. The problem you face petbet is the likelihood that a series of capital wipeouts will appear in succession thereby losing all the banks that have been set aside. Can you not work on trying to improve your model so it turns a profit at level stakes ?
R

I'm impressed with trigger, but it's true that sometimes it's a little scary because the responsability in recuperation bet it's high.

So i think that recuperation process can be done with fibonacci method or by a number of bets, like this:

Recuperation of a 1 euro divided per 3 races, to win 0.33euros per race.

Or

Do bets with responsability max of 10% of bank.

The percentages or number of bets can be parameterizable.

What do you think, racepro?


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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #26 on: 10 Oct 2015, 06:42 »

The percentages or number of bets can be parameterizable.

What do you think, racepro?



Hi,
There is a formula that will help determine what number of losers in frequency from lowest to highest. I'm sorry but I don't have that to hand. Someone on here may be able to help or you can search on Google. One test I carried out several years ago on favourites highlighted a losing run of 39 then shortly after, around two weeks as I recall, there was another losing run of 17. No staking plan exists that will survive this trauma. In the process you would have lost several banks and the accumulated profits from them. If you restarted again the possibility exists of a reoccurrence. Favourites generally win approx. 1 in 3 races around the world. Stand back from the canvass and ask yourself, is it wise to have your larger bets on losers and lowest bets on winners ?  It's a no brainer.
I urge you and petbet to focus more on how to improve your race reading skills and speaking of reading, there are a couple of books authored by Nassim Taleb namely, The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness which may be a touch on the heavy side for some but focuses on unpredictable events and in our case its long losing runs. Hopefully soon your rainbow chasing days will be over and you knuckle down to some serious form study and look for value winners. At least you've chosen wisely by using MFP and their most helpful team.
Good Luck
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #27 on: 10 Oct 2015, 11:58 »


Like any other bot, petBet is not supposed to work standing alone and always winning. You cannot put the bot to run, go on holidays, and hope that when you return you'll have the money to pay them.


Hi Petbet

The above statement is simply not true.  Market Feeder Pro (with the CORRECT trigger) is perfectly capable of running 24/7 unattended and making consistent profits.  So long as your automated betting strategy has found value in the market, then you trigger will make money at level stakes.

Good luck with your project, but don't try and mislead people into thinking that loss recovery is the only betting strategy that exists.

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #28 on: 13 Oct 2015, 19:27 »
Hi everyone

We are very happy to see that you are very interest in help us. We have analysed the last months statements, to define a strategy to make our trigger more consistent. And we have changed the way we look to lost bet, now we are testing the version 3 of PetBet trigger, the way how he choose the selection to do lay bet is the same that version 2 but when the trigger lost one bet, he dont try to recoup the lost money, the next bet is smaller than the lost bet, for example:

We define the bet value at 1€ (betvalue variable), than:

If we win the second bet is of 2€ (betvalue * 2) and stay with this bet size at least the the next lost, (if the maxlim variable is 2, if is 4 in the third bet he will bet 4€);

When he lost a bet the next bet is divided per 2, and if lost again the next bet value is the last value divided per 2;

When the trigger starts win again the bet value is multiplied per 2 at least the bet value reach the maxlim variable value.

If you want to try this new version please send us an email to petbet.trigger[at]gmail.com.

Thank you

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Re: petBet trigger-FREE TRIAL
« Reply #29 on: 13 Oct 2015, 21:04 »
Hi everyone

We are very happy to see that you are very interest in help us.

I fail to see how you have arrived at the above conclusion ? I don't see anything in the posts that suggest this. Unless help is being offered by PM, in which case pls forgive me.
Before wasting too much more time with your staking plan, why not test on a sample I have on file of losing runs using fav's and see how your trigger performs. A pattern of this nature is quite common and sometimes can be a lot worse, so please bear this in mind.
11L,  win 3.60,  7L,  win 2.40, 13L, win 3.10, 3L, win 1.80, 18L, win 2.90 11L, win 3.10
I'd be interested to see the results using the above data. Would you mind putting on a spreadsheet and post. That way we can determine the merit of your staking plan.
Thank You
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

 

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