Author Topic: am i just unlucky???  (Read 4584 times)

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am i just unlucky???
« on: 26 Feb 2013, 08:15 »
hi i am wondering if anyone can help me i have a trigger set up which i am running on test mode which is based on football betting, backing a certain result at a certain time depending on the current score!! 

this is all a little new to me and i have fiddled about for a few weeks, the problem is i get so far and then a few bad results blows my bank to bits >:( (which is fair do if its not a very good trigger which it mite not be )

after  a while i thought. if backing this result constantly makes a loss then why not try laying it (makes sense to me), trouble is this constantly makes a loss after a while too

now either there is something i am missing which could be the case or i am just really unlucky and choose what ever i do things will go against me but for me the law of averages should say that  they should either both not do too much or one should do ok while the other makes a loss but them both making constant loss dosnt make sense to me

at the minute my staking plan is to risk 10% of my bank

 any suggestions?? sensible answers only please


thankyou

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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #1 on: 26 Feb 2013, 08:57 »
hi
your system sounds like the average.
all systems have ups and downs, the problem is if you enter an up period then its the best since sliced bread, if you enter when it is in a down period you say it's crap.
the best thing to do is split your bank into 4 and use 1 portion at a time this way if you hit a bad period you have 3 more banks to use.
try looking back at your results and see what the result would have been if you carried on betting the same back or lay, to see what the long term profit would be.
all systems should be based on long term profits
using a system short term will produce good profits or totally bad profits.
but if the good profit are larger than the bad profits long term, then it is a good system.

mcbee
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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #2 on: 26 Feb 2013, 09:46 »
Hi
Are you applying your trigger to all games, or do you carefully select games for your system. For example the following link is very useful if you are betting Over
http://www.betvirus.com/topLeagues/over/
see the other links on the site which might be of interest to you.
You can then make a Market Locator template to load only the markets that are statistically in your favour.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #3 on: 26 Feb 2013, 12:07 »
cheers guys will look into this, i am currently backing on all markets and have given thought in to being a little more selective,
 i have noticed that my trigger doesn't always pick up on certain events for example i have just sat and watched it miss 2 matches where it should have put a bet on but didn't and both matches would have been winners, maybe i am missing crucial matches that swing the balance in my favour. something else i need to look in to!!

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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #4 on: 26 Feb 2013, 12:16 »
Check the trigger logs and see why those matches were not bet on. Enable it for future if it was not.
Fortune favors the brave!

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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #5 on: 27 Feb 2013, 14:07 »
A trigger that does not work as a lay will not necessarily work as a back and vice versa.

One reason is the commission which obviously makes it easier to lose money than to win it. 

The other thing is the gap between back and lay prices.  Look at the attached spreadsheet "wot I wrote" for you to see.  This randomises the results of 1000 bets.  Every time you press F9 it recalculates another scenario.  You can put in the theorectical strike rate (SR) and it will tell you what SR the random function resulted in.  You can chose the back odds then the lays odds are calculated from that given a chosen percentage you enter.  As this figure increase the more times you get a loss from both the back and lay systems. Have a play.

Alfaman

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Re: am i just unlucky???
« Reply #6 on: 27 Feb 2013, 16:50 »
thank you alfaman i will have a look a that  when i get a few moments, i know what you are sayong though about back/lay triggers not working the same but this one should be a pretty easy one to transfer, whats worrying is the rate of which they both lose money, with in a couple of days they are both in an almost unrecoverable state.
the thing is when i look at my statement the results i get for the lay would have given massive profit for the back and vise versa so i am beginning to think i am just unlucky and that what ever i do the results will go against me   :'(
 

 

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