Author Topic: BSP Breakeven  (Read 4503 times)

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BSP Breakeven
« on: 02 Nov 2017, 16:37 »
Hi,

I have done some historical analysis on a horse racing system I use, and I have discovered a profitable angle.

I am now reasonably familiar with writing triggers, and so, today, I am seeking advice from those who are, lets say 'wiser' than I am, with the objective being to perhaps use a different approach - or, maybe I have the right approach for what I am actually doing?

The angle above, is based on a set of selections throughout the day, using a certain criteria. What I have discovered, is that by using a price range, in the analysis, it manages to produce a great profit.

For example - Lay in the price range 5.01 to 8.50

So, my first thought is to use my set of selections, and write a simple trigger to place the bet(s)...

NOW, this is a LAYING strategy, and, the analysis I have done, is based on Betfair SP, and so, it seems the obvious choice to place an SP bet through the trigger.

Now, this is where the problems start, because, we are not able to select a lower and higher price range, and so, with LAYING, we can only select a MAX price for the SP bet.

My solution to this is to have a second trigger to place a BACK bet in play, to BACK the same selection, at the SP price, with the same stake as the lay.

This is simple to do in a trigger, as you know, being...

The first trigger to simply grab the selection from a file, then Set the Lay stake to be a percentage of my bank, such that the minimum of £10 liability is met, use a simple Lay at SP, for the stake above

lay at SP  Price limit 8.5  Liability bank * percentage
Conditions
Selections Name is in file "c:\selections\mystrat.txt"

THEN in the next trigger, in-play, have a condition such that if the starting price is equal or less than the odds value 'lowOddsValue', I then use the following...

Where selections trigger expression actual_sp is less than or equal to lowOddsValue

And define a stake that matches the one set in the Lay trigger...

This is simple enough, BUT, the second process does have its flaws...

What if the price, in play, does not reach that of actual_sp, and goes on to win, which produces a full loss..

I have had some success with this, using a small bank, but I know that at some point, I could end up getting shot in the foot, and it is likely that my original analysis will not carry forward, because my bets were not able to be matched for the back bet...


Does anybody have any suggestions which will improve my approach to this?

Thanks

Mark.

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Re: BSP Breakeven
« Reply #1 on: 02 Nov 2017, 18:40 »
Hi Mark,

Late withdrawals will have a big affect on your pricing too. AND it being NH season, all these front running types will shorten before the off as they begin to line up. 

I can't see a way around what you have already suggested. Maybe expand the price ranges a little (and see if you are still coining it in :) )

Larp


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Re: BSP Breakeven
« Reply #2 on: 02 Nov 2017, 19:36 »
Hi Larp,

Thanks for the response, and yes, I understand the changes in price especially i certain circumstances.

I know we are not going to improve what I have already done, but, just to show you in more depth, what I am doing, if you look at the image - please don't judge my front end design, it is the background processes which have the power, and it is not a public facing application, it is for my own use.

As you can see from the grid layout, the prices are arranged in a range which suits me, and also, you can see that the odds range for BSP prices are between 5.01 and 8.5, which, as you can see from the highlighted blue area, by looking at the Lay P/L section in yellow, above, it is showing 216.15 points. If you look to the left, at the blue area, you can see that the Days is showing as 57, which means it has made 216 point in 57 days, which is approx 3.8 points per day. The rankings on the left hand side are what I use in my criteria and selection processing, and A2,D2 have produced what I consider the best profit. If you look over to the mini grid on the right hand side, you can see that September produced 120 points, October profuced 93 points, and November has produced 3 points, and the results you see are up to and including yesterday - so, not too bad.

NOW, getting back to the suggestion of wider price range, if I were to set the lower price to 4.51, this would have reduced the profit by a whopping 59 points, so, for now, this odds range is working fine, I can also tell you that today, has so far produced a nice 5.7 points, and so, I do't wish to change the odds range.

It is of course my hope and ambition to find something I can get to work - I honestly have no real knowledge of horses, BUT, I am pretty good at writing utilities to show me data in a form that enables me to analyse things and look to produce strategies.

It is a shame that MFP does not have the ability to do the things I really want to do, but that's another subject.

Anyway, thanks for reading, and hopefully, you didn't fall asleep....

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE