Hi,
I have done some historical analysis on a horse racing system I use, and I have discovered a profitable angle.
I am now reasonably familiar with writing triggers, and so, today, I am seeking advice from those who are, lets say 'wiser' than I am, with the objective being to perhaps use a different approach - or, maybe I have the right approach for what I am actually doing?
The angle above, is based on a set of selections throughout the day, using a certain criteria. What I have discovered, is that by using a price range, in the analysis, it manages to produce a great profit.
For example - Lay in the price range 5.01 to 8.50
So, my first thought is to use my set of selections, and write a simple trigger to place the bet(s)...
NOW, this is a LAYING strategy, and, the analysis I have done, is based on Betfair SP, and so, it seems the obvious choice to place an SP bet through the trigger.
Now, this is where the problems start, because, we are not able to select a lower and higher price range, and so, with LAYING, we can only select a MAX price for the SP bet.
My solution to this is to have a second trigger to place a BACK bet in play, to BACK the same selection, at the SP price, with the same stake as the lay.
This is simple to do in a trigger, as you know, being...
The first trigger to simply grab the selection from a file, then Set the Lay stake to be a percentage of my bank, such that the minimum of £10 liability is met, use a simple Lay at SP, for the stake above
lay at SP Price limit 8.5 Liability bank * percentage
Conditions
Selections Name is in file "c:\selections\mystrat.txt"
THEN in the next trigger, in-play, have a condition such that if the starting price is equal or less than the odds value 'lowOddsValue', I then use the following...
Where selections trigger expression actual_sp is less than or equal to lowOddsValue
And define a stake that matches the one set in the Lay trigger...
This is simple enough, BUT, the second process does have its flaws...
What if the price, in play, does not reach that of actual_sp, and goes on to win, which produces a full loss..
I have had some success with this, using a small bank, but I know that at some point, I could end up getting shot in the foot, and it is likely that my original analysis will not carry forward, because my bets were not able to be matched for the back bet...
Does anybody have any suggestions which will improve my approach to this?
Thanks
Mark.