Author Topic: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite  (Read 10739 times)

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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #45 on: Mon, 18 March, 2013, 17:28 »
hi mcbee,
ahaa so there is a limit I guess to triggers. Last bet placed is vital but if it can't be
known then not a lot I can do about it.
The other suggestion perhaps is if the trigger knows the number of bets placed then
eg:
1    5.00
2    7.00
3    7.70
4    8.47
could it be written IF (number of bets = 0 then 5.00) IF (number of bets =1 then 7.00)
IF ( number of bets = 2 then 7.70) IF (number of bets = 3 then 8.47) etc etc
but that won't wirk if it is IF Then Else commands. Lookup table perhaps? but that would involve Excel and I wanted to work where possible with the triggers
Thanks
R
ps.... I tried the formula you sent but that adds .70 to all the previous bets
eg:  9.80, 10.50,11.20 etc
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #46 on: Mon, 18 March, 2013, 17:37 »
hi
i have been playing about with this formula and it gives us what we need, a profit on the fav that wins.
but the stakes can get high towards the end if the fav changes to many times
try it and see what you think

default_backa+(IF(profit_loss<0,-profit_loss,0)/(back_price-1))

it does'nt do what you asked for, but it gives the profit in the end


mcbee
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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #47 on: Mon, 18 March, 2013, 18:10 »
Hi
If your amount per bet number is always known, you could do it with a series of triggers updating a user variable with the amount.

Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 5.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 0
Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 1
Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.70 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 2
Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 8.47 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 3
etc.
Backing trigger amount: amt

You could also try a combination of the above for the first 2 bets and the 10% formula for the remainder

Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 5.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 0
Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 1
Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: <10% formula> Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal or greater than 2
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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #48 on: Mon, 18 March, 2013, 18:16 »
hi
to many triggers slow down the placing of bets and the 10% increase is no good inplay when the odds are below 2.00, the selection wins but at a loss.
my new formula works ok the winning horse provides a profit.

mcbee
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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #49 on: Mon, 18 March, 2013, 18:27 »
makes sense mcbee - thanks
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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #50 on: Tue, 19 March, 2013, 00:39 »
Hi mcbee & MarkV,
Thanks for all your effort it has taken shape.
Well done mcbee with that back formula it is better than the one I set out to design.
Of course if one was to bet using this staking plan on changing favs on all races or sports events it would be a quick trip to the poor house. It was not meant to be bet that way. One has to work on coming up with races where they can predict a winner in two. Easier said than done and then there's the lack of pool liquidity to deal with.
I will continue testing today and report back.
many thanks
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #51 on: Tue, 19 March, 2013, 00:45 »
hi,
one other point. Betting odds on is not a good idea unless you were quite confident  that you could land a winner. However as we know the make up of this staking plan it becomes unavoidable if one was to follow the rules to the letter.
But betting in the red over several changes is akin to doubling up. Not such a good idea.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #52 on: Tue, 19 March, 2013, 14:51 »
I fear this would not give the same results in live mode as test mode.  I agree event/race selection is very critical and have been thinking about other events where it might work better, but always return to racing as the only event with high enough odds and liquidity.

I wouldn't dare try it live though, so for now remains an academic exercise.

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Re: help required formula betting changing "in play"/"idle" favourite
« Reply #53 on: Tue, 19 March, 2013, 21:36 »
hi rubold,

I am even afraid to try it in test mode let alone live !!
It started out as a two part exercise to build a system
that would potentially guarantee a profit on every race
or perhaps any other event.
The staking side is what we've been discussing here.
The second stage would be to find a race where
you could narrow the field down to two chances.
One would need a robust market where in play
betting was involved.
Agreed.... it is all academia fodder.
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.