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  • #46 by racepro on 18 Mar 2013
  • hi mcbee,
    ahaa so there is a limit I guess to triggers. Last bet placed is vital but if it can't be
    known then not a lot I can do about it.
    The other suggestion perhaps is if the trigger knows the number of bets placed then
    eg:
    1    5.00
    2    7.00
    3    7.70
    4    8.47
    could it be written IF (number of bets = 0 then 5.00) IF (number of bets =1 then 7.00)
    IF ( number of bets = 2 then 7.70) IF (number of bets = 3 then 8.47) etc etc
    but that won't wirk if it is IF Then Else commands. Lookup table perhaps? but that would involve Excel and I wanted to work where possible with the triggers
    Thanks
    R
    ps.... I tried the formula you sent but that adds .70 to all the previous bets
    eg:  9.80, 10.50,11.20 etc
  • #47 by mcbee on 18 Mar 2013
  • hi
    i have been playing about with this formula and it gives us what we need, a profit on the fav that wins.
    but the stakes can get high towards the end if the fav changes to many times
    try it and see what you think

    default_backa+(IF(profit_loss<0,-profit_loss,0)/(back_price-1))

    it does'nt do what you asked for, but it gives the profit in the end


    mcbee
  • #48 by MarkV on 18 Mar 2013
  • Hi
    If your amount per bet number is always known, you could do it with a series of triggers updating a user variable with the amount.

    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 5.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 0
    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 1
    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.70 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 2
    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 8.47 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 3
    etc.
    Backing trigger amount: amt

    You could also try a combination of the above for the first 2 bets and the 10% formula for the remainder

    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 5.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 0
    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: 7.00 Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal to 1
    Set User Variable, Name: amt, Value: <10% formula> Condition: market’s number of matched back bets is equal or greater than 2
  • #49 by mcbee on 18 Mar 2013
  • hi
    to many triggers slow down the placing of bets and the 10% increase is no good inplay when the odds are below 2.00, the selection wins but at a loss.
    my new formula works ok the winning horse provides a profit.

    mcbee
  • #50 by MarkV on 18 Mar 2013
  • makes sense mcbee - thanks
  • #51 by racepro on 19 Mar 2013
  • Hi mcbee & MarkV,
    Thanks for all your effort it has taken shape.
    Well done mcbee with that back formula it is better than the one I set out to design.
    Of course if one was to bet using this staking plan on changing favs on all races or sports events it would be a quick trip to the poor house. It was not meant to be bet that way. One has to work on coming up with races where they can predict a winner in two. Easier said than done and then there's the lack of pool liquidity to deal with.
    I will continue testing today and report back.
    many thanks
    R
  • #52 by racepro on 19 Mar 2013
  • hi,
    one other point. Betting odds on is not a good idea unless you were quite confident  that you could land a winner. However as we know the make up of this staking plan it becomes unavoidable if one was to follow the rules to the letter.
    But betting in the red over several changes is akin to doubling up. Not such a good idea.
    R
  • #53 by rubold on 19 Mar 2013
  • I fear this would not give the same results in live mode as test mode.  I agree event/race selection is very critical and have been thinking about other events where it might work better, but always return to racing as the only event with high enough odds and liquidity.

    I wouldn't dare try it live though, so for now remains an academic exercise.
  • #54 by racepro on 19 Mar 2013
  • hi rubold,

    I am even afraid to try it in test mode let alone live !!
    It started out as a two part exercise to build a system
    that would potentially guarantee a profit on every race
    or perhaps any other event.
    The staking side is what we've been discussing here.
    The second stage would be to find a race where
    you could narrow the field down to two chances.
    One would need a robust market where in play
    betting was involved.
    Agreed.... it is all academia fodder.
    R 
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