Author Topic: Offset a 'Mistake' bet, with multiple bets on the same selection  (Read 73 times)

  • All members
  • Posts: 219
  • Karma: +1/-0
Hi,

This is related to my other post on "Nightmare CSV Logging"...

Up until yesterday, I was using a trigger, which worked brilliantly, on a strategy where I lay a horse, in play, as long as the actual_sp was between a min and max range...

this was fine, BUT, on some occasions, the bet would not be matched, because once the horse goes in play, the odds would not fall back into the actual_sp odds, consequently, the bet is not placed....

The stats I have, is that using the above approach, I would only get matched, around 88% of the time, using the selections my strategy produces...

Looking at the 'ideal' scenario, if I examined the BSP betting, the points gained, were around 250, BUT, using the high/low range, as above, the points gained, were 150, which is significantly lower than the ideal...

So, what did I do?

Yesterday, I decided to produce a trigger which takes the bet at SP, and in MFP parlance, actual_sp, which means I did a lay at sp bet...

The original odds range for this strategy, were 19.01 to 35, and for those observent viewers, 35 is not a valid SP value, in terms of the betfair ticks system, the closest value is 36, and so, when I set the price limit to 35, MFP placed the bet with a price limit of 36...

Of course, when you inspect the BSP values closely, it can produce BSP values such as 34.86, which again is not a 'valid' BSP value, but, that's how things are, and we accept them.

Anyway, I digress....

So, I setup my trigger to take the bet, provided the maximum BSP price is 36.

The problem comes, when the actual_sp value ends up below my minimum odds of 19.01, because, even if the price is 2.0, it will still place the bet. This is how Laying at SP works...

So, in order to resolve this, I decided to create my trigger as follows:

Lay at SP - price limit 36
condition - lay_price is equal or greater than 19.01

I set the trigger to fire at 0.1 minutes before the off


The problem here is that, as we all know, looking to place a bet at 0.1 minutes before the off, is not, and never can be, 100% accurate, because races very frequently, take off quite some time after the 'official' start time.

There is nothing we can do about this, so, have to accept it...

So, given that my horse is above 19.01 at 0.1 minutes before the off, a lay at SP bet will be placed. This is a one way bet, and cannot be cancelled..

So, the bet is placed, with the liability

And, the market takes 2 minutes to actually take off, and my horses odds have fallen to 18, which is below my condition of 19.01, using for example, a bet of £5

As it stands, I have to watch this, and once a bet is placed, I can see, through the MFP interface, that the take off price is 18, and so, I have to then manually place a £5 back bet, in the hope that the back price is at or above 18.

The best way to do this, to allow full automation, is to have a trigger to check the actual_sp, in play, and if there has been a lay bet placed, simply place a back bet with the same amount. Easy...

BUT, of course, in relation to the other post, if I have multiple strategies, which will place bets on the same horse, I have no way of determining if a particular strategy has been successful in its bet placement.

I do run a number of strategies to place bets, and they will sometimes bet on the same horse.

So, the only way for me to manage this, is to watch MFP, on every race, especially if the strategies place bets on the same selection.


What did I consider?
From the lay at SP trigger, have the trigger write to a text file when a horse has been picked to satisfy the higher price criteria, and write an entry into a text file.
THEN, in play, have another trigger to check the text file, for a selection in this file, and place a back bet if the higher odds are lower.

If we look at this, and examine the odds involved, if the the odds do fall below the minimum price, before the off, then the bet will still get placed, at SP, and so, we will definitely have an entry in the text file anyway, and the second trigger will see this horse, and place the appropriate back bet, to offset the 'mistake' bet.

As it stands, I have only created the initial trigger, to place an SP lay bet, with the price set to 36, I am going to look at creating the additional trigger to inspect the text file, created by the initial trigger, and then check the actual_sp, etc.

I feel this is this is the best way to do this.

I would be very happy to look at other ways to achieve this, if anyone has any suggestions?

Thanks

Mark.

  • All members
  • Posts: 219
  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Offset a 'Mistake' bet, with multiple bets on the same selection
« Reply #1 on: Fri, 29 December, 2017, 12:00 »
For anybody interested in how I achieve this, my trigger is in the image attached....

  • All members
  • Posts: 591
  • Karma: +32/-5
  • Gender: Male
Re: Offset a 'Mistake' bet, with multiple bets on the same selection
« Reply #2 on: Sat, 30 December, 2017, 12:14 »
Hi 

Have you considered using slightly different bet amounts for each strategy
eg
Strat 1 = £5.10
Strat 2 =£5.20
Strat 3 = £5.30

Also using Trigger xxxxxx Number of Runs Per Selection.
Also separate profiles for certain Strategies.


H N Y
Larp

  • All members
  • Posts: 219
  • Karma: +1/-0
Re: Offset a 'Mistake' bet, with multiple bets on the same selection
« Reply #3 on: Tue, 02 January, 2018, 19:55 »
Hi Larp,

Apologies for not sending my thanks, for some reason I did not get a reply sent to me?

To update on this, I decided to separate it into 2 separate profiles, to makes things 'apparently' simpler. Sadly, this didn't work out, and I am using a, let's say double barreled trigger to do things, now, which adds a complication.

I Lay at SP from the selections file, and this trigger has the additional action to write to a separate text file, then, when In Play, another trigger checks to see if the odds are above, or below the set constants, and if either of them are satisfied, it places a back bet matching the lay bet, at the intended price of actual_sp.

One of the key things, I think, was to have the lay at SP place an entry in a separate text file, and have the back trigger check for an entry in this file, and also, as you have stated, number of runs > 0

MarkV was helpful, and posted some suggestions in yet another post, but after testing on many days, I still couldn't get it to work.

So, exasperated, I have had to submit a trigger fix.

The strategy I have works really well, but somehow I can't seem to get the trigger to do what I need, hence the request. I'd rather not sit all day waiting to watch the horse racing through MFP, but at this time, I have to.

I was informed by the responder that it has been moved to public, but no idea where it sits now tbh?

Thanks again

Mark.