HELP NEEDED TO DEVELOP A TIE BACKING TRIGGER

Help, anybody!

I am a newbie and badly want to try out two strategies for baccarat with xfeeder lite initially:

i) after 20-25 games where there have been no ties, the trigger should start backing ties till one tie comes up, BUT IT SHOULD NOT immediately increase stakes after every loss, as they can rapidly pile up and create an impossible situation. Ties happen very very rarely but since the odds are so high, we can afford to go on for quite some time on level stakes, gradually increasing the stakes, to just keep ahead of the loss. an example of stakes at odds of 10.40 starting with GBP 2 could be: 2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-4-4-5-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-14-15-17-19-22-24-27-30-34-38-43-48-54-60 (36 straight attempts requiring a bank of 551 gbp). or a simple formula could be incorporated with the following conditions:

backing stake = ((cumulative loss+minimum win to be maintained)*1.03)/(odds-1), subject to a minimum stake of 2.  Here 1.03 is a 3% allowance for betfair commission.

As soon as a tie is achieved, the trigger should pause betting till appropriate conditions (20-25 continuous non-tie runs come up again)

ii) a simple chase for tie with the above formula.


would really appreciate help. thanks!!!



Would be grateful for some assistance with the requisite trigger.


Regards

Thidrum

This strategy will not be successful, but if you want it created for you anyway I suggest you send your request to:  [email protected]

backing stake = ((cumulative loss+minimum win to be maintained)*1.03)/(odds-1)

IS the immediately increasing stake after the loss.
Is there any pattern/formula for the first sequence?

Hi!

In fact, if we apply this formula immediately after the first loss, which if it was 2 units, then the required odds for the first recovery attempt would be (2+1)*1.03/9.4 {where 2 was the first loss , 1 is the minimum win to be maintained, and 9.4 is the back odds minus 1} which would come out to be 0.3287 unit to stake but since this would be not accepted by Betfair (unless of course xfeeder could be programmed to bet below minimum stake).

the odds 10.4 would keep the recovery stakes at 2 for the next 8 attempts after which the loss would not be recovered by flat betting.

Below is a simple calculation of stakes upto level 36 :
Attempts Odds Stake Loss Win:

1   10.4   2   2   18.42
2   10.4   2   4   18.42
3   10.4   2   6   18.42
4   10.4   2   8   18.42
5   10.4   2   10   18.42
6   10.4   2   12   18.42
7   10.4   2   14   18.42
8   10.4   2   16   18.42
9   10.4   3   19   27.64
10   10.4   3   22   27.64
11   10.4   3   25   27.64
12   10.4   4   29   36.85
13   10.4   4   33   36.85
14   10.4   5   38   46.06
15   10.4   5   43   46.06
16   10.4   6   49   55.27
17   10.4   7   56   64.48
18   10.4   8   64   73.70
19   10.4   9   73   82.91
20   10.4   10   83   92.12
21   10.4   11   94   101.33
22   10.4   12   106   110.54
23   10.4   14   120   128.97
24   10.4   15   135   138.18
25   10.4   17   152   156.60
26   10.4   19   171   175.03
27   10.4   22   193   202.66
28   10.4   24   217   221.09
29   10.4   27   244   248.72
30   10.4   30   274   276.36
31   10.4   34   308   313.21
32   10.4   38   346   350.06
33   10.4   43   389   396.12
34   10.4   48   437   442.18
35   10.4   54   491   497.45
36   10.4   60   551   552.72

This is not based on any formula but simply some estimate to stay ahead of loss.

Now if we were able to bet below minimum and apply the formula, then the chart would go like this

Attempts   Odds   Stake   Loss   Win:

1   10.4    0.10     0.10    0.92
2   10.4    0.12     0.22    1.10
3   10.4    0.13     0.35    1.23
4   10.4    0.15     0.50    1.37
5   10.4    0.16     0.67    1.52
6   10.4    0.18     0.85    1.68
7   10.4    0.20     1.05    1.87
8   10.4    0.22     1.28    2.07
9   10.4    0.25     1.52    2.30
10   10.4    0.28     1.80    2.55
11   10.4    0.31     2.11    2.83
12   10.4    0.34     2.45    3.14
13   10.4    0.38     2.83    3.48
14   10.4    0.42     3.25    3.86
15   10.4    0.47     3.71    4.29
16   10.4    0.52     4.23    4.76
17   10.4    0.57     4.80    5.28
18   10.4    0.64     5.44    5.86
19   10.4    0.71     6.14    6.50
20   10.4    0.78     6.92    7.21
21   10.4    0.87     7.79    8.00
22   10.4    0.96     8.76    8.88
23   10.4    1.07     9.82    9.85
24   10.4    1.19     11.01    10.93
25   10.4    1.32     12.33    12.12
26   10.4    1.46     13.79    13.45
27   10.4    1.62     15.41    14.93
28   10.4    1.80     17.21    16.56
29   10.4    1.99     19.20    18.38
30   10.4    2.21     21.41    20.39
31   10.4    2.46     23.87    22.62
32   10.4    2.73     26.59    25.10
33   10.4    3.02     29.62    27.85
34   10.4    3.35     32.97    30.91
35   10.4    3.72     36.70    34.29
36   10.4    4.13     40.83    38.05
37   10.4    4.58     45.41    42.22
38   10.4    5.09     50.49    46.85
39   10.4    5.64     56.14    51.98
40   10.4    6.26     62.40    57.67
41   10.4    6.95     69.35    63.99
42   10.4    7.71     77.05    71.01
43   10.4    8.55     85.61    78.79
44   10.4    9.49     95.10    87.42
45   10.4    10.53     105.63    97.00
46   10.4    11.68     117.31    107.63
47   10.4    12.96     130.27    119.42
48   10.4    14.38     144.66    132.51
49   10.4    15.96     160.62    147.03
50   10.4    17.71     178.33    163.14
51   10.4    19.65     197.98    181.01
52   10.4    21.80     219.78    200.85

With this, we can go out for 52 straight attempts with a bank of 220 units
Please note that the 3% allowance for betfair commission (which in reality is 2%) allows for a still further gain in long drawn out cases as in the 52nd case, if we win, we make a gain of 200.85 minus 197.98 which is bigger than the minimum of 1 unit win which we targeted.


Regards

Hi again!
continuing my earlier reply:

If i bet in progression applying the formula and following betfair minimal requirements with minimal increase of 1 to the cumulative loss to be recovered, the chart works out like this for 42 straight runs at odds of 10.4 (3% commission allowance here instead of 2%):

Attempts   Odds   Stake   Loss   Win

1   10.4    2.00     2.00    18.42
2   10.4    2.00     4.00    18.42
3   10.4    2.00     6.00    18.42
4   10.4    2.00     8.00    18.42
5   10.4    2.00     10.00    18.42
6   10.4    2.00     12.00    18.42
7   10.4    2.00     14.00    18.42
8   10.4    2.00     16.00    18.42
9   10.4    2.00     18.00    18.42
10   10.4    2.08     20.08    19.18
11   10.4    2.31     22.39    21.28
12   10.4    2.56     24.96    23.61
13   10.4    2.84     27.80    26.20
14   10.4    3.16     30.95    29.07
15   10.4    3.50     34.46    32.26
16   10.4    3.89     38.34    35.79
17   10.4    4.31     42.65    39.71
18   10.4    4.78     47.44    44.06
19   10.4    5.31     52.74    48.89
20   10.4    5.89     58.63    54.25
21   10.4    6.53     65.17    60.19
22   10.4    7.25     72.42    66.79
23   10.4    8.04     80.46    74.11
24   10.4    8.93     89.39    82.23
25   10.4    9.90     99.29    91.24
26   10.4    10.99     110.28    101.23
27   10.4    12.19     122.47    112.33
28   10.4    13.53     136.00    124.63
29   10.4    15.01     151.01    138.29
30   10.4    16.66     167.67    153.44
31   10.4    18.48     186.15    170.26
32   10.4    20.51     206.66    188.91
33   10.4    22.75     229.41    209.61
34   10.4    25.25     254.66    232.58
35   10.4    28.01     282.68    258.06
36   10.4    31.08     313.76    286.34
37   10.4    34.49     348.25    317.72
38   10.4    38.27     386.52    352.53
39   10.4    42.46     428.98    391.16
40   10.4    47.11     476.09    434.02
41   10.4    52.28     528.37    481.58
42   10.4    58.01     586.38    534.35

why i want to be able to apply the formula in the first 8-9 runs is that in case the odds go below 10.4 they may become unprofitable if we simply trigger xfeeder for 8-9 straight runs. if the formula is applied, the formula would simply adjust the number of runs at minimum stake automatically.
I hope this answers some queries.... phew !!!!!