Author Topic: ATTACHED TRIGGER TO LAY "ODD" - PLS HELP MODIFY  (Read 4129 times)

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Hi !

Waited for some days but couldn't find someone to help me modify this trigger.
Am uploading this trigger and if someone can modify this by adding the option to wait for a specific number of games (of the "highest hand is odd" winning) before starting the progressive laying process, and immediately upon making a win, the trigger should pause betting till again a specific number of games (of the "highest hand is odd" winning) lapse.

This trigger in its current state has been under test for the past 3 days and in demo mode, with a starting bank of gbp 50 balance and default lay stake of 2, has currently brought my available balance to gbp 659, and ticking.

I know that if the trigger encounters a win run of 11 games as as pointed out to me in my other post, it would bust my bank. that is why this modification is so essential.

I would be grateful if someone with time machine could run it through exhaustive databases, with a starting balance of 500 units and default lay stake of 2 units.

regards

thidrum



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Re: ATTACHED TRIGGER TO LAY "ODD" - PLS HELP MODIFY
« Reply #1 on: 13 Apr 2011, 14:39 »
hi
add this condition to your lay trigger
highest hand is odd    consecutive wins or ties   is equal or greater than  ( the number you want to miss).
this will wait until x wins or ties in a row then place the lay bet.
 can i just point out that by using this type of system, ie- wait until x wins.
you miss out on a lot of good bets.
maybe you should think about placing bets but wait until x (your losses in money or bets) then start recovering.
ie-after x losses add loss amount to the bet.
and you should also think about having 2 lay triggers.
1 trigger to lay normal stakes, when the odds are above 2.00
1 trigger to lay normal plus loss amount, when the odds are below 2.00

hope this helps you

mcbee
i've included the trigger, just alter the 1 to whatever you want
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Re: ATTACHED TRIGGER TO LAY "ODD" - PLS HELP MODIFY
« Reply #2 on: 13 Apr 2011, 18:43 »
Thanks Mcbee!!!

Your suggestion had definitely come to my mind but what i was thinking was that a long winning run is sure to come up once u start playing with real money. this would demolish my bank definitely within a week.

but your suggestion is noted and i hope that you have incorporated them in the trigger.

thanks and grateful for your help.


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Re: ATTACHED TRIGGER TO LAY "ODD" - PLS HELP MODIFY
« Reply #3 on: 13 Apr 2011, 20:29 »
Good luck with this, but I fear that you will be disappointed with this approach.
You are dealing with 2 problems;

1.  Waiting for a sequence of wins and then laying, is gambler's fallacy.  The odds are not changed by the fact that the selection has won the previous x games.

2.  Since every bet placed has a negative ev  any form of negative progression staking will not be successful in the long term.  Negative staking progression will only work to increase profits when the individual bets have a positive ev.

You might be lucky and make a good profit before the inevitable hit, but you could easily take the hit straight off.

A run of 4-6 (or whatever) wins, is nothing in the overall scheme of things and is actually meaningless.   I fully accept that all of these bets will average out to the probability expected from the odds offered, but we have no way of predicting over how many games this normalisation will occur.

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Re: ATTACHED TRIGGER TO LAY "ODD" - PLS HELP MODIFY
« Reply #4 on: 14 Apr 2011, 20:45 »
Hi!

I know it's not perfect but why I chose this side bet is that with a lay bet (and the avg odds are 1.7-1.8, my liability is not high. And I did play with real money for some time and I remained somewhat level, and my experience is not so bad here.

I have tried laying the tie, laying the pocket pair, laying natural draw, laying 9..... but when they do turn the other way round (as they seem to do so often in betfair once you start playing with real money, the loss I accumulate quickly decimates my bank. I once had 3 consecutive ties at lay odds of 10.6 !!!

I am considering playing the same game from 2 different accounts from 2 different machines whenever i feel the RNG is in cheat mode, with opposing bets till the pattern becomes manageable. the minimal loss i would accumulate here (since i would be betting on both sides) would be hardly noticeable and maybe, outwit the RNG. i could maybe risk only a slightly bigger amount on one side with hopes of arbitraging out in favor of both ends (just an idea... i will have to really understand and work on it.)

 

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