Author Topic: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?  (Read 41576 times)

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Hi all,

I know this has been discussed a couple of times on the forum but those posts are a bit old now, so I thought I'd conduct a new, brief opinion poll/survey.

With TimeMachine, it is a straightforward task to prove the effectiveness of an exchange games strategy (apart from the tricky issue of having to assume cash will be available on the exchange to match any large bets the system might need to place). I have experimented with many strategy variations, running TimeMachine for thousands of rounds, and I am yet to achieve a scenario where my strategies have either eliminated/reduced all big losing spikes, or have maintained reasonable betting stakes to recover positions.

Without necessarily revealing your strategies, can anybody actually report they have developed (or even bought) a reliable method of getting consistent positive returns on exchange games, which has been proven with TimeMachine over, say, 6 to 12 months?

Looking forward to your replies!

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #1 on: 09 Mar 2013, 22:17 »
Wow! More than a week later and no responses? This leads me to two conclusions:

1) There is no reliable method for generating consistent profits on exchange games using X-Feeder (or otherwise for that matter).

2) There may be a reliable method for generating consistent profits on exchange games, but no-one wants to admit to having one (possibly because revealing that they have one - even without hinting at how - might ruin their strategy).

There may be a third conclusion, in that not enough people operating a successful strategy have seen this post, but with over 250 views (assuming no webcrawlers) I would have thought someone might have something to contribute..?

Unfortunately I'm having to consider the fact that this is another scheme/tool which, on the face of it, promises a lot but ultimately cannot deliver owing to the nature of the exchange games markets.

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #2 on: 10 Mar 2013, 07:50 »
Answer 1 is correct, as exchange games work on an RNG there will never be a reliable method/system to beat it all the time, sure you will win for long stints but eventually with the offered odds you will never be ahead for ever.

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Unfortunately I'm having to consider the fact that this is another scheme/tool which, on the face of it, promises a lot but ultimately cannot deliver owing to the nature of the exchange games markets

Spot on, x-feeder can only implement what you want to play so you don't have to play manually, sad but true

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #3 on: 10 Mar 2013, 10:16 »
X-feeder is a brilliant tool to demonstrate the fact that no strategy can ever overcome a RNG that has an inbuilt house edge ie. back/lay spread + commission.

It's all betfairs money on offer and it is almost impossible to request or offer a better price and have it matched.  Another factor that has occurred in the last year is that the spread has been widened in all games by increasing the tick sizes.   So in R1 poker the spread was 3.98/4.02, whereas it is now 3.95/4.05

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #4 on: 10 Mar 2013, 11:55 »
 ;)

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #5 on: 10 Mar 2013, 11:57 »
 :D

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #6 on: 10 Apr 2013, 23:24 »
Hi triggers!

Thanks for sharing your screenshots - they are very interesting. Can we infer that you believe it is actually possible to create a reliable method of getting consistent positive returns on exchange games? Are you operating a live successful system? These answers may give others here the hope required to persevere with system development.

Presumably you've calculated the estimated longest losing streak (using the usual logarithm function) and the rules & conditions you've implemented cope with it without a problem?

I'd be interested to hear what rubold and saadsok think of them..?

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #7 on: 05 Aug 2013, 10:50 »
kineticwing,

Sorry, missed your reply.
Yes, the method(s?) exists - I believe.
The system is being tested on TimeMachine so far - more quicker results for the long period. I heard from many sources BetFair don't like successful bettors and "make them unfappy" after winnings. But I don't see any technical possibilities how it could be done from their side  ??? Especcially when there are 2+ winning persons on the market at the same time ;D

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Re: Exchange games - does an effective system exist?
« Reply #8 on: 14 Dec 2015, 03:42 »
Sorry. it is not possible to win on exchange games in the long run. Spirits are controlling the games and are using black magic and supernatural powers to watch ALL those participating and by dint making sure that none will come out winning. etc. Every time you log on to the games you are monitored intimately and personally by spirits.  These spirits derive the greatest pleasure in feeding off those who think they will profit and take the greatest of pleasures in defeating them and  their strategies. Stop playing now and deprive these evil manipulating spirits of their criminal activities. YOU HAVE  BEEN WARNED.

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE