This is an interesting question and one that can be answered in the positive.
It is very achievable to make a profit in the long term.
I started using mf pro about 18 months ago and after winning the first MF PRO competition last year, and thanks to the technical support of another forum member and user who came second in the competition, as well as the excellent support from MF PRO my profits average around £30 per day.
There are some very important points to remember in making money in the long term.
1st
I would advise, never use loss recoupment this is a way of ultimately losing more money, from an approach which has no fundamental basis of profitably at level stakes. If it doesn’t work at level stakes it isn’t going to work with loss recoupment.
2nd
As you have already correctly identified, take a long term approach by this you need statistical data on your chosen scenario of at least 1000 bets before you can begin to make any judgments on the possible longer term profitability versus probability. Then get at least another 1000 bets and then consider going live once this too is also profitable. However Failing that go the next option.
Get mathematics behind your approach. If you are playing the book at 101% you will be more likely to lose longer term.
With the book% at “the off” in most events typically around 101% you have a 6% disadvantage of winning in the longer term (at sp prices for horses) because of the Betfair 5% winning commission. Therefore you need an advantage of at least 6% over the market to make a possible return or a book of 94% or better. In view of this then, the math’s have to be in your favour.
There is little point taking prices that represent”no value” This means that if the book % is around 101%. You need to find a way of “beating the book” by taking exceptional prices on offer above and beyond the sp sentiment of the market place.
For instance at the off with a book at 101% if you have taken sp about any selection you will be likely to lose in the longer term. Especially if the selection is below around 10/1 (more on this is in a moment). However if you have taken a matched bet at 20/1 about a selection, that is subsequently backed down at he off to 12/1, you are ahead of the book and these bets are far more likely to give you the edge you seek. You are also in a position the hedge your trade before racing starts to give you a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the event.
Conversely laying a horse at 20/1 knowing that it is likely to drift to 30/1 at the off also gives you an advantage over the book.
As mentioned above backing selections in a book of 101% at odds of 10 or lower in a hcap are still likely to cause you a loss in the longer term, as these odds too are generally below the selections probability of winning which for a 10/1 shot is nearer to 11/1. If you look at the history downloadable from Betfair of big priced hcap outsiders these offer excellent value in terms of the long term approach. With a good net return (ROI) of around 11% from 9730 bets since last May, these horses if consistently backed with sp odds of between 50 and 250 over distances of 1m to 3miles, offer an invariably higher price than the statistical probability of their win. The problem here is the strike rate is tiny at around 1.7% so you need to kiss a whole pile of frogs before finding your prince!
So therefore because the outsiders are better value overall than their probability of winning the race and we already know the book is at 101%, it stands to reason that the shorter priced selections 10/1 and below are still poor value by comparison.
Clearly my approach combines a multitude of factors geared towards a sound mathematical formula, which consistently beats the sp prices as well as finding selections that offer outstanding value versus their statistical probability for winning.
To summarize unless you are able to get the maths on your side winning in the longer term is a difficult task. However working with the books in your favour will guarantee you a profit as long as you do not succumb to the old enemy of fear and greed. These are the bookies friends and will get most punters in a quandary once you a faced with continuing with your approach (knowing it is sound) even though you just lost half of your bank!
Which brings me to my final point . Be modest with your profit expectations as liquidity can restrict your profits to the money available. Don’t get too greedy.
Good luck with your search for that elusive edge and I hope that the above will be of some use in your search.
Topic: Is it possible to win in the long term? (Read 12489 times)