Pages:
Actions
  • #1 by statdude on 03 Dec 2012
  • Howdy,

    I have an interesting set of conditions which generates a curious tale -

    Using the time machine these conditions have been ran through at least 6 months worth of data (to end of November)

    Data gaps aside (often small), the conditions have generated at least 42 events a day to place a bet.

    Daily P/L varied but would accumulate to a healthy margin every month (in time machine).

    The moment this is set loose in the wild with live funds the generated number of events is less than 50% the trend 2 days in a row.

    Odd things can happen but zero crazy numbers in 6 month to 2 consecutive days like this.

    One part of me wants to laugh it off as 'ahhh good old probability' but the other part of me thinks 'huh?'

    Anyone else experienced similar?

    [Naturally, my live test used low bets to reduce risk]

    It would be awesome if betfair systems could detect patterns and shift the probability (for betfair, not us!)  8)
    • statdude
  • #2 by 1oser on 04 Dec 2012
  • if you really were using small stakes, I don't think they would shift probability.

    IF/When the data is available on time machine, double check it.
Pages:
Actions