Author Topic: The go to live funds game - always going to bite?  (Read 10690 times)

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Howdy,

I have an interesting set of conditions which generates a curious tale -

Using the time machine these conditions have been ran through at least 6 months worth of data (to end of November)

Data gaps aside (often small), the conditions have generated at least 42 events a day to place a bet.

Daily P/L varied but would accumulate to a healthy margin every month (in time machine).

The moment this is set loose in the wild with live funds the generated number of events is less than 50% the trend 2 days in a row.

Odd things can happen but zero crazy numbers in 6 month to 2 consecutive days like this.

One part of me wants to laugh it off as 'ahhh good old probability' but the other part of me thinks 'huh?'

Anyone else experienced similar?

[Naturally, my live test used low bets to reduce risk]

It would be awesome if betfair systems could detect patterns and shift the probability (for betfair, not us!)  8)

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Re: The go to live funds game - always going to bite?
« Reply #1 on: 04 Dec 2012, 11:49 »
if you really were using small stakes, I don't think they would shift probability.

IF/When the data is available on time machine, double check it.
Fortune favors the brave!

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE