Author Topic: Betfair MORNINGWAP  (Read 4914 times)

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Betfair MORNINGWAP
« on: 13 Jan 2015, 18:26 »
Hi,

The day after the event (Horse Racing), Betfair publish a file which has the MORNINGWAP which is the Weighted Average Price of all bets placed before 11am GMT.

Is there a way which this can be worked out for each selection in a Horse Racing event before the race is off?

The only way I can think of doing it is to back each selection at 9am, 10am and 11am for 1p and then that gives you an average price which you can then use to compare against the current price (10 seconds before the off).
If the price has reduced then it places a back bet for £2 (variable) and then places an in-play lay bet at a certain % (variable) of the price the back bet is matched at and greens up the selection.
If the selection does not hit the % in play then it does not lay and you just lose your stake for that selection.

Key point here is that it needs to do this for every selection where the price 10seconds before the off has come in against the MORNINGWAP price. If the selection has not come in then it does not fire the bet in and does not attempt to lay/green up.

Let me know if any of that did not make sense.

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Re: Betfair MORNINGWAP
« Reply #1 on: 14 Jan 2015, 07:32 »
I think it makes sense but the method you suggest would (unless I have misunderstood) would only give the average price not the weighted average.

If you are just interested in the average price falling just use the variable pdif_300 (for example) to see the back price change over the last five hours.  Compare that to the current price, see if it meets your criteria etc. etc.

You may be able to cleverly use traded_{price} in some form of loop to summate the money traded at every price ( 1-1000 in steps of the ticks in that price range) and create the true weighted average price which may compare to Betfair's.

Anyone smart fancy doing that?  An actuary tells me that I don't have long enough left to live for me to try, and I am only 12  ;)


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Re: Betfair MORNINGWAP
« Reply #2 on: 15 Jan 2015, 06:55 »
Just bringing this back in above all the Russian messages as it may not get seen on the X-feeder site.

Anyone got any thoughts?

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Re: Betfair MORNINGWAP
« Reply #3 on: 24 Jan 2015, 16:46 »
Hi  3daydealer,

Is there any statistical data to back up your approach?  I just checked the whole of 2014 and it seems to be loss making to me.

thanks

alfaman

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Re: Betfair MORNINGWAP
« Reply #4 on: 25 Jan 2015, 21:00 »
Hi

Please can anyone give me a clue as to how to do this?

I need to calculate the morningWap for each selection, but how can I store this as a variable for each and every selection so that I can compare it against the price just before off?

Any suggestions? (just on storing the variable, not the calculations).

Thanks ( I am probably being mad but I just cannot think how just now)
   

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Re: Betfair MORNINGWAP
« Reply #5 on: 25 Jan 2015, 22:11 »
Hi alfaman,

I have a trigger that records the WOM, the lt_trend and the lt_ma for each runner. I am willing to alter it to what you are thinking about here.

But, I have a few worries about this strategy.

Would you not need all the horserace win markets open from an early time in the day?
How often do you need to record the WAP for each horse? 
With the variables set to individually per market, it can be done but at what market refresh rate and from when until when?

Also, does the MorningWap on its own have any relevance to the price right at the off?

Let me know if you really think it is worthwhile.

Larp


 

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