Author Topic: New idea for channel_trend  (Read 5196 times)

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New idea for channel_trend
« on: 22 Jun 2010, 11:21 »
I've no doubt most of you have looked at the channel_trend variable and attempted to make use of this in strategies.  Most feed back from users indicates they are using it to switch test mode on/off  (which can only be tested in live mode) or  to change the default stakes.

There is another variation and that is to use the actual value of the variable to modify the default stake.  So for example:

when the trend is positive -  set default back amount to 4*(1+channel_trend)
when the trend is negative - set default back amount to 4*(1-abs(channel_trend))

I am getting good results using something along these lines on blackjack exotic bets.

  • Tim Vetrov
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Re: New idea for channel_trend
« Reply #1 on: 22 Jun 2010, 15:23 »
That's great idea!
The problem is you can't place bet below the minimum, so you have to risk at least $4 (or £2).
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Re: New idea for channel_trend
« Reply #2 on: 22 Jun 2010, 16:23 »
The two equations are equivalent by the way, so you will only need the first one. However, you need to take care of the case when channel_trend is exactly 0 (no bet). Better yet, set a maximum stake such as 100, then bet only when channel_trend is above min_stake/max_stake-1 = -0.96 (i.e. stake will be 4 at that point and you cannot bet lower than that).

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Re: New idea for channel_trend
« Reply #3 on: 22 Jun 2010, 16:50 »
Both situations mentioned by last two posters can be catered for by having the following trigger before your back trigger:

Set default back amount to value 2 (or whatever min. stake is)
Conditions: Trigger Expression back_size is less than 2

This is obvious, I don't need any problems pointed out to me - I was just putting forward examples of the idea.


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Re: New idea for channel_trend
« Reply #4 on: 25 Jun 2010, 07:29 »
Hi,

Great ! I love the channel_trend and got a couple of stategies.

Latest one is backing the non-favorites after the flop with Poker. As you might have noticed each day there is a run of "weird" results where the postflop favorite looses to a 1 or 2 outer i.e. four of kind winning against a flush by hitting on the river (what a cooler ! :)

To test attached is the trigger to test in testmode, with "balance" as the result for realplay.  Has anyone tried this strategy ? The key is stopping at fixed profit, eventually the profit will be gone !!

Other questions :

How is the P/L trendline calculated ? I don't mean the value of the channel_trend  variable but the P/L trendline itself ? It isn't a linear or polynominal trendline based on the data, does anyone know ?

thnks in advance !
Rabbito

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Re: New idea for channel_trend
« Reply #5 on: 02 Jul 2010, 12:29 »
Hi Rabbito,

Thanks for the trigger idea, I'd like to take a look at it today, I'll let you know what I think later.

To answer your question about the trend calculation.

The trend is based on exponential smoothing, with alfa = 0.1.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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