Author Topic: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite  (Read 18354 times)

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I have just added a new trigger example with the corresponding name. Click on the link below:

http://www.x-feeder.com/strategies/poker2_0/trend-back-lay/

La pagina italiana:

http://it.x-feeder.com/strategies/poker2_0/trend-back-lay/

It utilises the newly added trigger variable channel_trend, with some interesting results.

What do you think of it?
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #1 on: 17 Feb 2010, 10:53 »
The P/L trend is an incredibly useful addition to x-feeder.  Everyone must have tried strategies that cycle between profit and loss.  I have one the produces long continuous profit runs that eventually reach a peak and then fall into negative territory.

I now run this using switch test mode on and switch test mode off triggers, so that I am live trading when the trend is positive and test trading when the trend is negative.

I haven't yet optimised the channel_trend settings, but I am already showing major profit using small stakes.

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #2 on: 17 Feb 2010, 20:06 »
I'm glad to hear that rubold!

Indeed you can now switch between test and real modes based on the value of channel_trend: if it is positive, you can bet in real mode, if it is negative - in test mode.

Another good approach is reducing the size of your bets once you've found yourself on a losing streak, e.g. bet 1/4 of your normal bet. The new stakes will still make influence on the trend, so you'll determine the winning streak and change the size of the bet to the original one.
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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #3 on: 18 Feb 2010, 10:43 »
I'm glad to hear that rubold!

Indeed you can now switch between test and real modes based on the value of channel_trend: if it is positive, you can bet in real mode, if it is negative - in test mode.
Ho scaricato il trigger per testarlo,puoi dirmi quale parametro devo cambiare che corrisponde a channel trend? il nome è "changing the type of the bet" sul valore "1-dir" o sbaglio?
grazie

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #4 on: 18 Feb 2010, 11:27 »
Toro, se vuoi cambiare il valore di channel_trend che vincola il tipo di scommessa, devi modificare la costante threshold in alto della finestra trigger.
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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #5 on: 18 Feb 2010, 13:25 »
Toro, se vuoi cambiare il valore di channel_trend che vincola il tipo di scommessa, devi modificare la costante threshold in alto della finestra trigger.
Sino adesso ha solo bancato, questo è il risultato dalle 12,00 alle 14,00.
Ho iniziato con una banca di 150,00 euro.
Grazie.

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #6 on: 19 Feb 2010, 10:43 »
Oxa,  how is the trend line variable calculated?  Can I see what value is given to this in real time? 

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #7 on: 19 Feb 2010, 10:49 »
Ignore my second question, I've realised I can display the value using the user variables button.

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #8 on: 19 Feb 2010, 11:10 »
I will answer your first question.

This value is calculated as the gradient (level of steepness) of the trend line.
If you need more math details, it is in fact the cosine of the angle of inclination to the zero line (which corresponds with P/L neither growing nor going down).
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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #9 on: 20 Feb 2010, 23:42 »
I have tried the trigger you posted and it does not work as expected.
It starts off laying, but even if the lay bets are winning it switches to back bets after 3 lay bets.   At the switchover it backs and lays the same selection.

I know what you wanted to achieve, but the trigger as downloaded does not accomplish it.

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #10 on: 22 Feb 2010, 13:38 »
I have tried the trigger you posted and it does not work as expected.
It starts off laying, but even if the lay bets are winning it switches to back bets after 3 lay bets.   At the switchover it backs and lays the same selection.

It doesn't actualy mean that the P/L trend is growing up.
The trigger changes the direction of betting based on the trend value, not the latest winnings.

Check the value of the channel_trend variable when it starts backing instead of laying.
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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #11 on: 22 Feb 2010, 17:04 »
OK, I misunderstood what you wanted to achieve. 

Although I don't myself use the channel_trend to change bet type as my strategy is for backing only, I have looked at this bet before and it definitely exhibits quite long runs where the R2 fav loses.  So I just thought it would have been logical to keep laying the fav. so long as it is mainly losing and then switch to back bets when the trends show it is tending to win.

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #12 on: 23 Feb 2010, 13:39 »
Rubold, that's where the constant named threshold comes handy. It is set to change the type of betting when the trend value is -0.25. You can change that value to whatever you want, say -0.1 or 0.0. You can experiment with different parameters of the trigger file until you've achieved your goals.
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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #13 on: 25 Feb 2010, 22:25 »
Hi

I would like test :

always back or lay player 1
when  I am  just up the trend   color green  i bet in reel mode

when I am down up the trend color red i bet in test mode

I is possible ?

thanks

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Re: Using P/L trend to back or lay on the favourite
« Reply #14 on: 18 Jun 2010, 09:33 »
Hi,

How is the P/L trendline calculated ? I don't mean the value of the channel_trend  variable but the P/L trendline itself ? It isn't a linear or polynominal trendline based on the data, does anyone know ?

thnks in advance !
Rabbito

 

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