Author Topic: Why so quiet in here?  (Read 3958 times)

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Why so quiet in here?
« on: Sat, 04 February, 2017, 00:02 »
Hi Guys,

Having recently "invested" in xfeeder along with time machine, I decided to drop by here and expected a hive of activity with folks testing all the systems for various games splattered all over You Tube and the web.

To my surprise there's very little activity here at all. The triggers in xfeeder appear to allow us to customise every possible scenario and the software works really well - though time machine can be annoyingly slow whilst it's loading data and you're trying to navigate the menu at the same time...

I'm well aware that these sort of exchange games are generally seen as a "mug's game" because of the excessive edge which Betfair has, however I like a challenge and it seems to me that it should be possible to run a profitable bot which runs daily at least for a limited time period or stopping at a target/stop loss limit. 

Time appears to be crucial from what I've seen. Manually I can do very well on HiLo until about 11pm, after then everything collapses until around 10am the next morning. What I suspect is happening is that Betfair have an algorithm which runs overnight at times of low liquidity (i.e. when they have to put their own money into the market to keep it running). This algorithm skews the supposedly RNG selections against the winning side of the punters who are still in the market at that time. 

For example, in HiLo, if the first card is 3, then the probability of getting a 2 is 1/12, however this result will appear much more often overnight (or in times of low liquidity) than in peak times. Of course over time, the algorithm will throw in a lot more 2's than would be expected by probability - so ultimately if Betfair are asked if they're fixing the exchange games they can provide overall probability stats to "prove" that everything is random and follows the expected rules of probability. Maybe I'm paranoid? lol. 

Going back to my original question, is the reason that this forum is so quiet is because nobody can win and everyone has given up, or is it because those who have nicely profitable triggers don't want to spread the word too much because the liquidity on these games is tiny compared to ones such as racing and football?

Cheers

Mike

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #1 on: Sat, 04 February, 2017, 19:10 »
I think you touched on it re: not knowing if Betfair is cheating or not! I for one won't risk it!

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #2 on: Sat, 04 February, 2017, 20:17 »
Yep it's impossible to tell!

However, given that they take a commission when there are enough punters to back and lay each selection, they only need to skew the random results in times of low liquidity, so that they don't end up losing the cash they've seeded to keep each market available 24/7. Losing bets coming from their own money could be substantial compared to the commissions they've built up. 

My original comment example wasn't too clear - what I meant is that if Betfair switch to a "loss aversion" algorithm overnight when hardly anyone is betting, then any number which is skewed out of the average can be put back again to keep within the expected probabilities overall. 

The solution is to only trade the most liquid markets and to trade them at the optimum times of day when real folks are betting instead of most of the bets being placed by Betfair's bots. 

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 05 February, 2017, 02:52 »
Another thought...

Given that in HiLo, the computer always has to predict High if there are an equal number of cards remaining High and Low, then if we always bet low in this scenario we can be sure that whatever happens next is true probability. 

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #4 on: Sun, 05 February, 2017, 20:10 »
Hi Mike et al
Yes you might be a touch paranoid, you have Time Machine, run a few tests with the stored data and you will see that the results are indeed random, day or night. This is why you can't beat them with any single strategy, especially as the odds are set just below ( or above for the lay bet ) the actual real value then you deduct commission.

I have experienced moments of terrible bad luck, but to be honest also amazing good luck.

Except for the Poker games (due I think to the app), you will see a little action on some of the turbo games, except for Omaha Hi, during most evenings, so it is most unlikely anyone has worked out a always winning strategy, they would be here all the time.

As you have seen, there is very little activity on this forum, except for the Russians, indeed there used to be a Betfair games forum as well where strategies were suggested and discussed, and yes I think a lot of people have now given up looking for easy money strategies that aren't there.

Good luck.

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #5 on: Sun, 05 February, 2017, 20:24 »
Regarding--- another thought...

This is a good example where you cannot win. The lay odds are set to 2.02 so you will always lose more than you win, plus you will pay commission on all wins, try it in Time Machine and you will win-lose about the same number of times, as per the expected evens outcome, but you will lose money.

If you had a large enough bank, using Martingale, might be an option, but with all evens bets a long run of wins or losses are quite likely.

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #6 on: Sun, 05 February, 2017, 21:13 »
Thanks for your valuable input again atjbet :)

I'll check out some Poker or Omaha Hi strategies where there is the most betting action which should be interesting. 

So far, I've just been dabbling with strategies for HiLo because it's quite a straightforward game. I'm seeing some big losing runs and some big winning runs testing over over a small sample of data from Feb 2016, hence my question in the other thread about only placing a new bet when the previous one was a winner. 

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Re: Why so quiet in here?
« Reply #7 on: Fri, 14 July, 2017, 03:30 »
Time appears to be crucial from what I've seen. Manually I can do very well on HiLo until about 11pm, after then everything collapses until around 10am the next morning. What I suspect is happening is that Betfair have an algorithm which runs overnight at times of low liquidity (i.e. when they have to put their own money into the market to keep it running). This algorithm skews the supposedly RNG selections against the winning side of the punters who are still in the market at that time.
Had a similar observation for Texas Hold'em. A strategy I developed works great in evening hours, not so great during the night (CET). Now looking for ways to automate.

... or is it because those who have nicely profitable triggers don't want to spread the word too much because the liquidity on these games is tiny compared to ones such as racing and football?
Given the way they [exchange games] work, once you have a profitable strategy, your smartest decision is to keep VERY quiet about it.
8)

I think you touched on it re: not knowing if Betfair is cheating or not! I for one won't risk it!
Love it or hate it: If you want to be long-term profitable here, you actually WANT and NEED them to be rigged... a little bit at least.
:D

Happy trading!