Pages:
Actions
  • #1 by 1oser on 19 Mar 2014
  • While doing some statistical research I came across an interesting article.

    small piece below, link to full article further down.

    Quote
    System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.

    $100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

    Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
    Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
    Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
    Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
    Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
    $100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

    Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
    Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
    Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
    Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
    Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
    $1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

    Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
    Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
    Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
    Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
    Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
    $1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

    Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
    Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
    Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
    Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
    Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

    The Truth About Betting Systems
  • #2 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 30 Mar 2014
  • That's an interesting piece of statistics 1loser.

    Does is actually imply that with only 1% of advantage you are bound to achieve profit rather that go bust in an absolute majority of cases?
  • #3 by gra on 30 Mar 2014
  • 1% no problem no mistake no software crashes. massive turn over.what can go wrong.
  • #4 by 1oser on 31 Mar 2014
  • What I wanted to highlight is that even with a good advantage, but  with a small bank you can still go bust.

    Look at the player with a 2% advantage, but only $100 bank .. likely to go bust 17% of the time!
  • #5 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 31 Mar 2014
  • Yes, a small bank is definitely a disadvantage. Theoretically with unlimited funds you cannot fail, as you can play endless martingale, but in practice the amount offered in the market is very limited and there is a cap on the maximum bet if I'm not mistaken.
Pages:
Actions