Author Topic: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help  (Read 10501 times)

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HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 05:45 »
Hi Guys,

I am in need of some experienced PRO help when setting my initial bet and the amount the percentage MF Pro bets when in front of my starting BANK

and

the best bet PLUS loss re-coup percentage when under my STARTING BANK amount.

Represented as a market feeder pro AMOUNT formula/trigger.

To help lets say my starting bank is 1000.00 (growing bank no withdrawals) and my strike rate is a WIN every 5 bets on average.

Minimum WIN ODDS is 2.20 and I only ever bet to win. Average win bet would be 3.50 up to 4.30 MAX

My longest losing streak is 8 usually, but can be up to 10 at times, not often.

1 OUT OF 7 DAYS AVERAGE, MOST DAYS SHOW A PROFIT

Can anyone help me tweak a better betting and loss re-coup formula than what i have now which is successful but i know it could be better with PRO help.

Thanks in Advance for any ideas on this new thread.

Bonecrusher  8)
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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #1 on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 09:38 »
Hi,

What kind of "loss re-coup formula" are you using now?

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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #2 on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 20:32 »
A simple 20 % of total losses.

Bonecrusher
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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 20:39 »
Hi
I think you should have a look at Kelly for backing:
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/back-kelly/
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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #4 on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 20:52 »
Thanks Mark,

I have looked at the trigger and it looks pretty involved. But something i can use i think.

Going on my above info what do you think i should set as parameters in this trigger.

Is there some info on the kelly staking plan somewhere so i can understand better how it bets and how it re-coups loss???   

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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #5 on: Sun, 20 October, 2013, 21:01 »
Hi
Yes it is a bit involved, but if you do some research and understand the principle, you will soon see it is a very good staking plan.
I referred you to Kelly because you have analysed your bets and can provide the criteria, but I can't really advise on parameters, you will need to work on that yourself once you understand how it works.

The laying version has more info and some links:
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/lay-kelly/
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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #6 on: Mon, 21 October, 2013, 01:06 »
Kelly by itself do not have a "re-cop losses". Kelly's criterion just say how much you should bet if you have an edge.

Would you make a profit playing flat bet? In that case Kelly could be a good approach.

One problem in your situation could be that you have a large odds-span, what I mean if you want to use Kelly you will probably need to find out your strike rates for different odds span. 2-2.5, 2.5-3.0, ...

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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #7 on: Mon, 21 October, 2013, 01:36 »
Thanks tupp,

I will take a closer look at my odd span, i can see kelly could be helpful, but what i have now seems to work OK. Perfect when i am winning.

I think what i am looking for is the best staking plan to re-coup any losses along the way. With a low risk of having too large bets on any one runner.

I may only have 8 - 10 bets in a day of 100 plus races, depends on the day.

what is the best way to re-coup losses over say 10 bets???

Bonecrusher
I never bought a lifetime licence when I had the opportunity and kick myself every day by not realizing at the time the power of MF Pro and its team behind it.

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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #8 on: Mon, 21 October, 2013, 02:02 »
A simple 20 % of total losses.

Bonecrusher

Will your re-coup of 20 % give you too large risks or is it too slowly?

Have I understood you right if your bet amount=initial +(maxbank-bank)*0.2

If you want to use that model, but optimize the %-of total losses, one way could be using historical data (time machine), as I understand it some people are beta-testing the time machine?   

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Re: HELP NEEDED - Progressive Betting Percentage help
« Reply #9 on: Mon, 21 October, 2013, 12:19 »
Hello,

"and my strike rate is a WIN every 5 bets on average."


I think you might want to reconsider your losing streak estimation. According to one formula I use, your ELS is way higher than 8.