Author Topic: Successful Strategies  (Read 4934 times)

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #15 on: Thu, 28 February, 2019, 22:15 »
Hi all,

I use a trigger based on betfair atm and make 15-25 a day.  I am trying to create a successful trading trigger as well:)

You can make money on Betfair either trading or using a low risk level staking real proven betting system.


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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #16 on: Thu, 07 March, 2019, 03:44 »
A question above was what other pastime is expected to lose? I would say owning a boat, playing golf etc. If you keep your gambling losses in check you have the fun of sorting out a winner/ loser and keep your brain working hard. You do have the chance to come out in front which you don't have with a helluva lot of pastimes

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #17 on: Wed, 03 April, 2019, 10:25 »
Sorry let’s be honest here:

Laypro88 trigger is not the system it is coded incorrectly, hence why loses. The stats at still the same.

Matched betting is really what you all should be doing unless you have all you bookies accounts banned :). Then you should turn to Betfair trading.

Just gambling means your a mug punter, if a system can make 100 points a year that’s amazing:). Be realistic, there is 2 systems that have proven over 5 years that work one can be automated not by this software tho and the other cannot. 

I Trob and Dob mainly now aiming for 10-19 points a month :)


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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #18 on: Tue, 09 April, 2019, 01:21 »
This is a great thread.  I have been using MFP for well over 10 years.  Successful strategies are extremely difficult to find.  I find that one of the best ways to test systems is to use very small bets and to test them over lots of races.  By lots of races, I mean something like 500.  You can get very unreliable results by testing a system over 20 or 50 races.

A useful tool for testing systems is an Archie score.  Various other threads on this forum have referred to it, including a post by me about 3 years ago.  Essentially, it calculates the probability that your results are due to luck.  It's based on a Chi-Squared distribution.  I use the Archie Score all the time to test whether the system I am trying out is likely to have any underlying value.

Here is a link to an explanation of it: http://false-favourites.co.uk/blog/archie-score-how-to-check-your-selections-true-chance-of-winning/

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #19 on: Tue, 09 April, 2019, 16:06 »
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]My thoughts are that there are two ways to make money from Betfair. 

[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]A. Trading. I have had mixed results trading and probably break even over time. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]I did study an excellent online course a while back and put it to practice. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]My reservation were that I couldn’t/didn’t want to spend hours a day staring at a screen waiting for the right moments to arrive. I could have made it work but didn’t have the patience. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]I took some of the principals and turned them into triggers which is where my 1st successful system came from. 

[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]B. You have to be consistently laying lower than SP or backing higher than it. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]Whenever I’m testing strategies I always get MFP to write my matched Lay/Back prices and SP prices to a .txt file. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]I monitor it each day and transfer the data to excel so I can see if I’m getting the prices I need to succeed. They don’t all have to be positive results, but your looking for a positive average over all of your results. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]With some simple maths you can roughly calculate how much profit to expect over the long term. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]I’m currently testing it on the Win, Place and Dogs markets and so far am averaging between £0.03 and £0.09 return for every £10 risked. 
[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]It doesn’t sound much but it I will happily take it. 

[font=.SF UI Display][font=.SFUIDisplay]I hope this helps a little, it might all be a load of bollocks but it’s just my thoughts [font=.AppleColorEmojiUI]😀

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #20 on: Tue, 09 April, 2019, 16:08 »
Sorry, I don’t know what’s happened above lol
It’s come out all weird 

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #21 on: Wed, 10 April, 2019, 16:03 »
Hi
Market making in lower (but just enough) liquidity match odds and moneyline markets i.e. trading in the spread 36hrs to 3hrs before the off. For higher volume markets the same and wait my turn in the queue. Sloooww but steady 0.3% to 0.5% ROI. Perfect job for MFP :)
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #22 on: Thu, 11 April, 2019, 06:22 »
Hi Market making in lower (but just enough) liquidity match odds and moneyline markets i.e. trading in the spread 36hrs to 3hrs before the off. For higher volume markets the same and wait my turn in the queue. Sloooww but steady 0.3% to 0.5% ROI. Perfect job for MFP :)

Do you price the markets up yourself?

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #23 on: Thu, 11 April, 2019, 19:25 »
Hi Market making in lower (but just enough) liquidity match odds and moneyline markets i.e. trading in the spread 36hrs to 3hrs before the off. For higher volume markets the same and wait my turn in the queue. Sloooww but steady 0.3% to 0.5% ROI. Perfect job for MFP :)
Do you price the markets up yourself?
Hi
No, the clue is in just enough liquidity. I'm looking for a trading gap in a range either side of most_traded_price. It's interesting because sometimes there are other bots doing the same thing on the other side of the book and we feed off each other until the price moves out of the range.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #24 on: Fri, 12 April, 2019, 06:35 »
Hi Market making in lower (but just enough) liquidity match odds and moneyline markets i.e. trading in the spread 36hrs to 3hrs before the off. For higher volume markets the same and wait my turn in the queue. Sloooww but steady 0.3% to 0.5% ROI. Perfect job for MFP :)
Do you price the markets up yourself?
Hi No, the clue is in just enough liquidity. I'm looking for a trading gap in a range either side of most_traded_price. It's interesting because sometimes there are other bots doing the same thing on the other side of the book and we feed off each other until the price moves out of the range.

That's really interesting. I use most_traded_price in my systems.
Its a very useful variable :)