Author Topic: Implied probability  (Read 141 times)

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Implied probability
« on: Fri, 22 December, 2017, 08:47 »
Morning all

I'm looking to add a condition to a trigger that calculates the difference in implied probability between the favourite and 2nd favourite. ie I want the trigger to fire only if the favourite has an implied probability of greater than 10% over the 2nd favourite. 

Any help appreciated :)

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Re: Implied probability
« Reply #1 on: Fri, 22 December, 2017, 17:22 »
Hi
Try:
selection: favourite
condition: selections trigger expression (1/r_1_back_price)*100 is greater than ((1/r_2_back_price)*100)*1.10

note: for this to be accurate you will need to ensure the market's back book % is close to 100%
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Re: Implied probability
« Reply #2 on: Tue, 26 December, 2017, 12:25 »
thanks for that. Much appreciated