Author Topic: Kelly style trigger for backing favourite  (Read 1247 times)

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Kelly style trigger for backing favourite
« on: Tue, 27 October, 2015, 08:50 »
Hi, getting a bit frustrated trying to work this out. I'm sure this is not too complex but am still not getting used to writing triggers. Any help?

I want a Kelly style trigger that will increase the stake as the back price increases. Basically as follows:
Only bet on favourite
Only bet if back price is higher than 3.2
For every tick above 3.2, increase stake by 0.3% of bank.
maximum back price of $5.

The list of options in the manual is getting me a bit bogged down.

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Re: Kelly style trigger for backing favourite
« Reply #1 on: Tue, 27 October, 2015, 10:13 »
Hi,
What is your minimum back price ?
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Kelly style trigger for backing favourite
« Reply #2 on: Tue, 27 October, 2015, 19:30 »
Min back price is 3.25.
I would want MFP to place a stake that is 0.3% of my bank at this price.
If back price is 3.3 then 0.6% of my bank and so on, so that for every tick the back price increases by, the stake increases by .3% of my bank.

I guess I start with back favourite at price 3.25 at balance*.003. (once per market)
Then set a condition that says for every tick over this price the stake increases by 'balance * .003.
I just don't know how...

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Re: Kelly style trigger for backing favourite
« Reply #3 on: Tue, 27 October, 2015, 22:22 »
The first part of your trigger needs to calculate the number of ticks the current fav price is about 3.25. Therefore use

g_ticks(price1, price2)
Returns the difference between price1 and price2 in ticks. If price1 is less than price2, the result will be positive, otherwise - negative.

so use g_ticks(3.25, r-1_back_price) to establish the number of ticks 3.25
now use
(0.003+(g_ticks(3.25, r-1_back_price)*0.003))*total_funds
as bet amount formula.
All this information is in the help document.

Always use TEST mode first.
Favourites of $3.25 have a 50% chance hitting 22 losers in a row. Thats 6.6% of your bankroll
Improvise Adapt Overcome

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Re: Kelly style trigger for backing favourite
« Reply #4 on: Fri, 30 October, 2015, 22:32 »
Thanks Londolozi. That mostly works. I had to modify the price as it was trying to back the favourite at crazy high odds but is working now.