Author Topic: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions  (Read 13243 times)

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Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« on: 13 Aug 2013, 07:56 »
Hi,

I'm trying to implement a trigger for my version of the Over/Under Martingale trigger example. As a newbie to Marketfeeder, I'm having some difficulties understanding how to implement certain filters and to set the system up for automatic execution.

I'd like the system to automatically monitor all football games that will be offered In-Play, filter out games where  the volume in the Match market is at least 5.000 Euro and that the backed odds for Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market is at least 10. Then finally, the system would start with an initial lay bet on the Under 1.5 market, provided the game is In-Play and at least 1 minute has elapsed.

One difference from the original trigger is that when a goal is scored and the next Over market is layed, I want to back the previous Over market, aiming at getting out of that one with a zero result. I.e. I will send a back order with the same volume and price as I originally layed it.

When the game reaches the 79th minute, I want to perform an automatic green-up.

I have a trigger file where I've tried to implement this functionality, and I think the Lay and Back triggers are ok. The conditions surely are not though. Any guidance on how to set up the conditions would be very much appreciated, as would some hints on how to set the system up for automatic trading

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #1 on: 13 Aug 2013, 19:23 »
Hi
I'll see if I can help you with this.

Please can you confirm:
  • From your description I am not sure which selection you want to lay in the OU markets. Is it the Over selection like in the original trigger?
  • Is the CS market only needed for filtering the OU markets to lay in? I ask because I intend deleting it once the filtering process is done, to save on refreshing unnecessary markets
  • Is the OU0.5 market required?
  • Do you intend to lay to OU8.5 if needed?
  • At 79 minutes green or distribute loss?
  • Please can you list the sequence of events for say a 3 goal game. For example:
    Lay Over 1.5
    Goal
    Lay Over 2.5
    Back ??
    etc....

I would say the biggest problem with the original trigger was not being able to get value lays matched in low liquidity markets. Even more so as the number of goals increases. Naturally, we will include conditions to try and get better value lays, but you should be aware of this issue from the outset, and it may also impact on your back bets.

There is plenty discussion about the original trigger on the forum, you may have seen, if not search "over under martingale".

You will need 5 posts on the forum to be able to attach a file, but I might have something for you to look at before then.
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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #2 on: 14 Aug 2013, 08:44 »
Hi MarkV,

Thanks for your reply. Yes, I want to lay the Over selection as in the originasl trigger. The only difference is that I want to start with the initial bet on the Over 1.5, i.e. skip the Over 0.5 market.

The CS market is only for filtering, so I only catch matches where the back price for Any Unquoted is higher than a threshold, e.g. 12.

I do not require the Over 0.5 market.

I should be able to lay the Over 8.5 if needed.

At the 79th minute, I would like to green up if I have an overall profit of a percentage of the intial bet. e.g. 75%. For example, if the score is 3-1 and I have two active bets, lay Over 4.5 and lay Over 5.5, at the 79th minute I should probably have a profit as I can neutralize the Over 4.5 market by backing it at the same price and amount as I laid it, and then green up the Over 5.5.


An example sequence:
Match starts, lay Over 1.5
Goal: lay Over 2.5, back 1.5
Goal: lay Over 3.5, back 2.5
Goal: lay Over 4.5, back 3.5
Green-up on the Over 4.5 market starting at 79th minute

Finally, I would like the automated trigger to only have one match going at a time.

Many thanks for your attention!

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #3 on: 14 Aug 2013, 17:15 »
Hi
If the back bet to close out the previous market for zero loss is matched, there will be no loss to recover from the previous market, i.e. no martingale required. Is this how you want it to work?

I did some initial testing on a backing trigger today. It needs to activate before the lay on the next market.

Would you mind posting up your trigger so I can see where you are? You can split your post into 3 or 4 and you should be able to attach then. cheers     
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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #4 on: 15 Aug 2013, 09:20 »
Hi,

Yes, one part of the concept is to aim for neutralizing the second Overs market. This should reduce the Martingale effect and make it easier to get out with a profit. Overall, I want to green out when 75% of the initial bet can be secured as overall profit.

I'll write a couple of other posts and then publish my trigger file.

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #5 on: 15 Aug 2013, 09:32 »
Other ideas I'm thinking of implementing:
Triggering greening up when overall profit is 75% or more of the initial bet
Taking on matches where the Any Unquoted price is lower than threshold (e.g. 10) by starting on the Over 2.5 market, but only if the lay odds is 1.5 or lower

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #6 on: 15 Aug 2013, 09:33 »
And after the trigger, I must learn how to set Marketfeeder up so that it automatically imports markets that are about to start, and make sure how to limit the system to only be in a limited number of matches concurrently.

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #7 on: 15 Aug 2013, 09:35 »
And here is my trigger file.

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #8 on: 15 Aug 2013, 09:56 »
Thanks for that. Your trigger file more or less matches as far as I have got. I think what we need to look at is the formulae for the amounts in the lay triggers.

One big problem I found yesterday was the market_score was so unreliable all day. Some matches had it, but only after the first goal. The England v Scotland game did not show it at all.

The easy bit is the importing of markets. We will set up a Locator file and run it in the Scheduler.

I can't do anything further on this until Fri pm, and will certainly have some time over the weekend.

To start with I suggest you put in the following conditions:
Lay triggers:
and market's lay book % is greater than 95

Back triggers:
and market's back book % is less than 105
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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #9 on: 15 Aug 2013, 20:06 »
Hi Mark V

What is the reason for the above two conditions?

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #10 on: 15 Aug 2013, 21:03 »
What is the reason for the above two conditions?
Hi
Ideally you want as close as you can get to a 100% book on the back and lay sides. To put it another way, you want a very small gap between the best back price and the best lay price. As soon as the market is open again after a goal suspension, there is always a big gap between the best back and best lay prices. A common approach is to wait for a couple of minutes or so until the market settles, but this does not guarantee better prices. Using the book % as a condition improves your value to the specified %. The trade-off is in low liquidity markets your trigger might not fire because the book % is not attained. Another way to do this is to use a condition specifying maximum ticks between back and lay:
and selection’s trigger expression g_ticks(back_price,lay_price) is less than x
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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #11 on: 15 Aug 2013, 21:31 »
Thanks.  Very useful explanation.

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Re: Laying Overs with Martingale and conditions
« Reply #12 on: 16 Aug 2013, 16:57 »
Hi
Attached is a basic framework. I am hoping you will be able to do some testing and report back any problems. We will add the market filtering and value conditions once you are happy with the way the lay and back triggers are working.

I have not checked your formulas for price and amount, but I have changed quite a few other things.

I think the lay bet in the next market should wait until the back bet from the previous market has been matched. Do you agree?

For info. Greenup at 78 minutes is market’s minutes since the off: 45+3+15+33 = 96

Let me know how you get on.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

 

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