Hi,
Thanks for the response.
I think it is all a little vague at the moment, almost by necessity.
The idea is to look at a market (horse racing win markets only), and try to judge which horses' odds are likely to go out and which are likely to come in. Then make lay or back bets as required. Type of race (factors such as distance, class etc) are all irrelevant - selection is purely a matter of judgement of direction of odds.
Then monitor the odds to establish the hedged profit or loss on each selection, and add them all up. If they all add up to a positive number, you have a profit, if not then a loss.
When the profit or loss target is reached, or race is about to start, then make the closing bets at current odds with the appropriate stakes and lock in a profit or loss. As I said in my first post, there would be the option of going in play up to a certain percentage of the race is run, then close out if targets haven't been reached.
Without being too long winded, an example would be that after looking at a race I decide to lay 2 horses and back 1 at current odds. So my opening bets are:
- lay Horse A for £10 at 3.5
- lay Horse B for £10 at 4.0
- back Horse C for £10 at 2.8
After a while the odds have moved to say, A=2.5, B=6 and C=2.4
Calculate the stake: (Opening Odds/Closing Odds) * Opening Stake
Stakes for A=14, B=6.66 and C=11.66
So, the opposite bets would be:
- back A for £14.00 at 2.5 to give profit/loss of -£4.00
- back B for £6.66 at 6 to give +£3.33
- lay C for 11.66 at 2.4 to give +£1.16
Total the 3 to give +£0.49*.95=£0.46. If this is greater than the profit target (or less than the loss target), then make the bets as above and take the profit or loss.
I think the selection process might be a problem, but I think the only way would be with one or more variables. So, for each race I would type into the variable, say back horses ranked x, y and z and lay horses ranked a and b. Variables for Min and Max odds would have to be included.
I can't think of anything else at the moment. So, many thanks and I look forward to your response.