Author Topic: Triggers in Action — a new high-scale, transparent strategy-testing project  (Read 13099 times)

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We have started a new high-scale strategy-testing project!

Triggers in Action

Roughly each week we will take a new strategy, program it into triggers and test these triggers for 7 days in a row to reveal any vulnerabilities or risks, tweak their input to get a better output and assess their performance.

I will record my wins and losses as a set of account statement files for you to download. At the end of each testing week, I will publish the results in a weekly blog post in this section.

This project has some tangible benefits for you:

1. Easy to try and tweak the strategy: I will give you an installation file with a package of triggers, program settings and a Market Locator search template for finding the right markets. All you have to do is launch MarketFeeder Pro, choose the right settings profile – and you’re all set for betting!

2. Risk assessment. I will test the triggers for seven days in a row (with occasional interruptions due to technical problems, such as BetFair being down, like it was the case yesterday). You will be able to assess the risks by analysing the account statement for each day.

3. Control over your bets. I will explain which settings I tweak and for what reason, and you will be able to adjust the same settings using constants.

4. Transparency. I won’t conceal anything, including losses and epic fails. You will be able to repeat each of my steps yourself (lucky that we have the Test Mode) and comment on my and your results!
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Here is our first post in this project:

Lay Dutching on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites on horse racing with green-up


At 3 minutes before the start of a horse race (but not later than at 30 seconds), place three Lay Dutching bets on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites. Once any of these bets can be closed with a profit of 0.2% of the liability, or all of the remaining bets can be closed with the profit of 0.2% of the liability before the off or 0.5% at In-Play, place back bets to green up (generate equal profit).

The bets will be left In-Play, i.e. waiting to be closed until the very end of the race.

The following races work the best
•   Irish and UK races;
•   With a distance starting from 1600 m (~1 mile);
•   With 6 to 14 runners.
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I like this!

Thumbs definitely UP 


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Looks interesting, i would be interested in looking at high volume Australian racing days which is usually Wednesdays and Saturdays.

possible conditions to look at:

Conditions that help with looking at matched volume for each selection,

steamer directions,

a condition that waits for similar priced horses to show a clear direction before betting.

a staking plan that works with a low impact loss recoup.

I'm looking forward to seeing the results and have subscribed to the thread. :D
I never bought a lifetime licence when I had the opportunity and kick myself every day by not realizing at the time the power of MF Pro and its team behind it.

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Thank you both for your feedback!
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Laying on Greyhounds with loss recovery
« Reply #5 on: Wed, 19 December, 2018, 14:27 »
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Over/Under Martingale (Football)
« Reply #6 on: Wed, 26 December, 2018, 21:25 »
This is a classical Martingale staking plan applied to Over/Under x.5 goals markets in football. You lay on the Over x.5 selection in each market (e.g. Over 0.5 goals, Over 1.5 goals, etc.), and as the score increases (or rather, IF it does so), you aim at recovering your loss by transferring it over to the bet in the next market. For example, you start by laying £4 at 1.5 on "Over 0.5 Goals" in the market "Over/Under 0.5 Goals". When the first goal is scored, the first bet loses £2. So you lay £4 + £2 = £6 against "Over 1.5 Goals" in the market "Over/Under 1.5 Goals", then - against "Over 2.5 Goals" and so forth.

You can place bets in advance, i.e. lay on a higher score than the current number of goals, e.g. lay on Over 1.5 when the score is 0:0, then on Over 2.5 when the score is 1:0 and so on. This entails higher prices (and greater risks), but somewhat insures you against late goals in the last minutes of the match when you might not make it in time to place the last, most critical, bet.

I give credit to everyone who claims that the Over/Under Martingale plan can ruin you financially. Yes, it can! I outlined its dangers at the beginning of this report, such as late goals and high liabilities.

I tried to eliminate those dangers as much as possible by laying ahead of the score (to generate profit even if two goals are scored in a quick succession) and accepting losses if the liability exceeded the predefined threshold.

I think this plan has a potential for even bigger profits.

Read more below:

Over/Under Martingale (Football)

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Here is our first post in this project: Lay Dutching on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites on horse racing with green-up At 3 minutes before the start of a horse race (but not later than at 30 seconds), place three Lay Dutching bets on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites. Once any of these bets can be closed with a profit of 0.2% of the liability, or all of the remaining bets can be closed with the profit of 0.2% of the liability before the off or 0.5% at In-Play, place back bets to green up (generate equal profit). The bets will be left In-Play, i.e. waiting to be closed until the very end of the race. The following races work the best • Irish and UK races; • With a distance starting from 1600 m (~1 mile); • With 6 to 14 runners.
I have only just found this thread and what a great idea.
Do you have any results for this strategy yet?

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Do you have any results for this strategy yet?

The results are provided on the page linked in my post:

https://marketfeeder.co.uk/learn/triggers/dutch-lay-favs/
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Maria Lay Staking Plan
« Reply #9 on: Thu, 03 January, 2019, 16:38 »
I promised you I'd be honest!

Maria Lay Staking Plan

This system has been discussed a lot because a lady called Maria apparently turned £3,000 into £100,000 in less than a year using this staking plan. In 2005, she started a thread on a betting forum reporting her daily progress. Unfortunately, she did not reveal the method she used to choose the horses she laid on. She said that her father had 'connections' around horse racing circles and could get inside information.

Her strike rate over the period was 85% with average lay odds of 6-1. If her strike rate had fallen below 75% she would have made a heavy loss.

The idea behind the actual staking plan is very simple: you lay different amounts depending on the size of your bank and on the price of the selection. Your stakes are adjusted if you make profit or get exposed to losses. The flexibility of this plan makes it so accessible.

However, I couldn't make this plan work for me:




My verdict: this staking plan only works if you do have a strike rate of at least 85% (you win 85% of time). In all other cases, you will end up with either small or significant loss. But then, if you, like Maria, get access to insider information, maybe you won’t need any staking plans after all?

But if you happen to find a good tipster, here is what this plan can bring to your bank:

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Backing on Over 0.5 Goals at increasing prices
« Reply #10 on: Mon, 14 January, 2019, 20:35 »
This strategy is as simple as it says so on the label: you just back on the teams in a football match to score at least one goal. However, there is a staking plan within this strategy:

1. You bet a fixed percentage of your current bank.

2. Start by backing the highest amount on Over 0.5 at the beginning of the game, while the price is still low.

3. As the game continues, place another back bet on Over 0.5, with a lesser amount and at a higher price.

4. Close to the end of the first half, place the third bet at the highest price.

5. If the score is still 0 – 0 towards the end of the game, distribute the loss evenly.

6. If you suffered loss in a game, increase your next 3 bets by 20%, then revert to the initial bet size. E.g. with a bank of $1,000 and a bet size of 2%, you back 20. If you lost -$15.00, and your bank is now $985, the next 3 bets will be $985*0.02 + 20% = $23.64.

This strategy heavily relies on the low chances of a game ending with a nil score. But it would be pointless if you were betting before or shortly after the start of the match, because the price of Over 0.5 Goals normally reflects the high chances of at least one goal in a match. That’s why you need the second and third bets.

Backing on Over 0.5 Goals at increasing prices

Tested from 03/01/2019 to 09/01/2019

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Backing in the Place market on horses whose prices have increased in the Win
« Reply #11 on: Fri, 25 January, 2019, 14:41 »
This strategy is so counter-intuitive that I struggle with finding a rationale behind it.

I stumbled upon it when I was testing the opposite idea – to back on horses whose prices have shortened over the given period. But I noticed that this idea would invariably lead to a loss, see a typical statement below.

So I decided to do what comes to the mind of many newbies: to do exactly the opposite:

1. At 30 seconds before the start of a horse race, look for horses whose chances have decreased in the Win market over the last 5 minutes by the specified percentage. A chance is calculated as 100%/price, so for example, if the price was 4.0 and then became 5.0, the chance of this horse has decreased by 100/4.0 – 100/5.0 = 5%.

2. Otherwise look for a horse whose rank has increased since the moment you started refreshing the market. For example, if at the beginning the horse was the first favourite and later, at the time of betting, it became the second favourite, then this is the candidate for backing.

3. Back on the qualifying horse(s) in the Place market.

4. There is a loss recovery plan involved: after the loss, you increase your next 3 bets by 1.2 to compensate for the loss. Then the bet reverts to the initial size (a percentage of your bank). Note that the sequence does not restart after each loss: instead it is pursued for a fixed number of steps, regardless of how many losses will be in between.

Backing in the Place market on horses whose prices have increased in the Win market

Tested from 09/01/2019 to 16/01/2019

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Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator
« Reply #12 on: Sun, 03 February, 2019, 12:59 »
This time I strayed from my normal narrative and looked into how sometime you feel you just can't win from the system. And you really can't, because the system (aka BetFair) charges commission on your profits.

But you can try and win from other bettors.

Here are my insights into a simple backing profit accumulator plan.

Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator

Tested based on market data recorded for 12 days, from 15/01/2019 to 26/01/2019.

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Hi oxa ,

The triggers in action is a great idea.

Could you test the following idea?

As the top 5 forecast horses win 80 percent of races up to 12 runners , could you test backing any of the top five with have drifted in price base on the ‘Slik_numerator’. 

Back the two or three of the selections maybe that have drifted the most back the ones at the shortest price of more then two or three.

You could look up to 15 runners taking the top 8 as well. The idea is to get value and high strike rate. Doing this manually produced very good results surprisingly. However, be good to see it over a number of races. That would check if it is a valid system or not.

If a fav has the same price of the slik numerator 1 min before the off it might be worth skipping the race or just backing that one horse only.

The above is just idea :) 

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Backing on the server in Tennis and trading out later
« Reply #14 on: Wed, 20 February, 2019, 13:57 »
Did you think that backing on a serving player in tennis was a good idea? Well, I saved you time by proving it's not!

The underlying assumption of this strategy is that the player serving the ball has better chances to win that game, and therefore his/her price will likely go down at the end of the game, creating an opportunity for a green-up. Whether it came out true or false, you’ll find out from my report below.

Backing on the server in Tennis and trading out later

The triggers start by backing on a player when he/she is serving in a game. You can choose whether you want to only back on the player with the lowest price (the current favourite) or any serving player.

Then the triggers wait for an opportunity to green up, i.e. close the bet for an equal profit on both players. If that opportunity presents itself during the game (with the minimum number of price ticks in profit), the triggers close the bet there and then. If not, the triggers wait till the end of the game, and then trade out for equal profit or loss, depending on the price of that player.

If the trade-out generated loss, the next back bet on the server is multiplied by the predefined number. After a green-up, the size of bet returns to its initial value.

Tested for 7 days

Period of testing: 12/02/2019 to 18/02/2019

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