Author Topic: Bets placed not matching conditions  (Read 2425 times)

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Bets placed not matching conditions
« on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 12:59 »
Hi,
I have had this problem occur from time to time when bets are placed despite clear conditions stating otherwise.
In a soccer match today Dortmund U19 were 50 to 1 and losing 2-0 at the time
when a bet was placed:

11:05:45   Going to BACK on 1 selections:

      Dortmund U19, $ 5.00 at 1.15;

11:05:45       Condition is: TRUE. valid for 1 selections: Dortmund U19.
11:05:45       Checking condition and Selection's Rank is equal to 1.
the matched volume for the event at the time was around 10K

I can understand the rank order sometimes is not correct for a few seconds but the following conditions were in place to ensure the diff between back and lay was minimal, thus avoiding any errant bets being placed.
and selection's trigger expression g_ticks(back_price,lay_price) is equal or less than 2
and selection's back price is equal or greater than r_ticks(lay_price, -2)

Please let me know if I am missing something or what I might be doing wrong.
Many thanks
R
 
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #1 on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 13:19 »
Hi
It is difficult to tell from the portion of the log you provided. Really need to see the log for all the conditions for that trigger's refresh iteration.

Ideally, you want to confirm the rank with market_score. The condition block below should do it.

OR
selections rank is equal to 1
and selections index is equal to 1
and selections trigger expression market_score1 is greater than market_score2
OR
selections rank is equal to 1
and selections index is equal to 2
and selections trigger expression market_score1 is less than market_score2
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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #2 on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 14:16 »
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your usual quick response. I have to confess that I was testing a trigger on a couple of soccer events but the trigger is going to be used on two event outcomes like rugby (no draw), tennis, basketball. Hence the market score is not useful but thanks for the heads up and will go in my soccer file.

I have attached the logs for checking as per your suggestion.
Seems odd given that the real odds were 40 to 1 with the team at the time was losing by 2 goals and the bet was placed at odds of 1.15 ?
My guess is the bet should have gone on Armenian Bielsfeld whose odds would have been around 1.15. In addition I notice the setting in the trigger is "first matching selection" which probably should be set to "favourite"
This probably will solve the problem however does not explain why all the conditions were "true" for Dortmund as shown in the logs.
I'm sure you can throw some light on this
thanks
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #3 on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 15:38 »
Hi
Here is my theory. I think the bet was placed immediately after the third goal in the 50th minute just after the market had re-opened from the goal suspension. After a suspension and Betfair cancelling all unmatched bets, it is possible that all those conditions were momentarily met. Furthermore, the rank is based simply on the selection with the lowest back price, so I do think all the conditions were met and therefore the bet was placed.

To resolve this, and for any two outcome event, use a book% condition which will ensure the market is correctly formed.
For backing: markets back book% is less than 105 (or your acceptable back book%)
For laying: markets lay book% is greater than 95 (or your acceptable lay book%)
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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #4 on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 16:20 »
Hi Mark,
Lately I have forgotten to add those valuable market book% conditions. I agree that would most likely have prevented that bet. Another lesson relearned.
I think I'll make a standard condition block incorporating all the "must haves" for all future triggers, this will go a long way towards reducing those errant bets. Thankfully I am still in test mode.
Thanks again Mark.
I have to say Poirot has nothing on you :)
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #5 on: Sun, 09 March, 2014, 16:36 »
I disagree mon ami, his little grey cells are far superior :D
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Re: Bets placed not matching conditions
« Reply #6 on: Thu, 27 March, 2014, 15:24 »
Selections index the are equal to 2 is one indication of a good one to me. I still have to support this opinion though.
Gambling is a lifestyle.