Author Topic: Triggers in Action — a new high-scale, transparent strategy-testing project  (Read 4999 times)

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Hi again,

The time difference makes it difficult to have an immediate conversation.

I downloaded your trigger "as is" on 26 March. The only change I have made was to disable the "distribute loss" at 80 mins.

Trigger "back 1" does not show a minimum price for the first bet; in fact, the condition reads: "and selections back price is between 1.01 and max_05_price". In the constants, max_05_price is shown as 1.12.

If there has been a revised trigger since 26 March, then I have not upgraded, so my records are based on no minimum price on the first bet.

I ran the trigger last night (my time), and it showed a loss of $83.47. I stopped it just prior to 24 hours as I have a few other tasks to do this morning (my time - Australia).

75 games for 67 wins (89.3%).

Average price on winning games was $1.075.

Please don't misunderstand my comments. I am really keen to see these tests being made by you, as your triggers are an eye-opener for rank amateurs like me. I am 70yo, and I have been constructing my own basic triggers for over 12 years, but I am not very literate on programming.

I encourage you to keep doing these examples, so we can all see different theories, different triggers, and your testing. I am certainly enjoying them.

My comments were simply to suggest that the 05 trigger as described will probably not be successful long term, but with some adjusting, it may be OK. I personally like the theory behind it.

By contrast, I also ran your greyhound trigger last night, and it was totally successful, reaching the maximum profit of 15% of bank quite early in the day, but it had a couple of scary moments through the loss recovery process.

Happy to discuss further,

bobh




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That's interesting: thanks for sharing your experience with those triggers.

Can you also try them with the loss distribution trigger? How many games did you lose that day?
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Laying on the favourite horse based on the form of the first 3 favs
« Reply #32 on: Sun, 07 April, 2019, 14:52 »
This idea came to me after I had been trying to figure out what was common among the favourites which were losing in horse races. I just compared all the main qualities such as price, age, weight and then I looked at their form (the silks form, the list of the places they took in the previous races). This strategy is the result of my experiments with the form.

Laying on the favourite horse based on the form of the first 3 favs

The triggers will work in horse races where the Silks data are available (such as the jockey’s name, age/weight and form of each horse).

You need to pick a race where the forms of the first three favourites satisfy the following criteria:

- The form is not empty;
- The last three symbols of the favourite’s form do not include 1, 2 or 3;
- The last three symbols of the second favourite’s and third favourite’s forms do not include 1.

You then lay the first favourite, with a loss recovery in 3 steps.

Tested for 7 days, from 15/03/2019 to 21/03/2019.

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Hi Oxa, 

Testing the layform trigger, does it not stop betting after it’s made 10% profit? I found it keeps going example starting bank 1049 , bank is now 1079 but it’s still betting why is this?

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hi
trigger constant

Quote
Maximum profit (% of bank) after which the triggers stop betting
so 1049 + 10%(104.90) = 1153.90 
the trigger will bet until the bank is about 1153.90

mcbee 
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Tested Laying on the favourite horse based on the form of the first 3 favs trigger with a few changes and found after about 3 weeks it does make money very slowly. What it needs is some type of protection system against 3 favorites winning in a row.

Also i found a weird anomaly when ever a FAV would win quite often the next triggered LAY bet would also lose. This happened very frequently.

I designed a trigger to back this bet to win and actually made some money lolol

I have found the trigger does not make enough bets to make the system as it is viable, it will bore you to death with the continual chase back of lost money.

Good try OXA but no cigar with this one, needs major changes, using form like using horses barriers does not have the impact on future results as many think they do.

Chaos theory gets the same or better results...

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Quote
Good try OXA but no cigar with this one

I simply test the strategies I come across, without actually promoting them. 
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Our long-time user and a valuable member of community, BobH, offers some thoughts on the strategy "Backing on Over 0.5 Goals at increasing prices".

He has tested the triggers between April 5th and 8th (400+ games on each plan) and given us an impressive feedback on what worked for him and what had not.

Read his review in the updated article above!
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Backing on Over 1.5 with a profit accumulator and a loss recovery plan
« Reply #38 on: Fri, 07 June, 2019, 10:26 »
I give you my report of backing on Over 1.5 goals in football, with profit accumulator and loss recovery.

Backing on Over 1.5 with a profit accumulator and a loss recovery plan

The final edition of my triggers do the following:

1. Choose football matches with at least £500 matched. The pre-off price of Over 1.5 Goals must not be higher than the value you’ll specify.

2. Wait until the price of Over 1.5 goals raises to 1.8, then back a fixed percentage of bank.

3. If the bet lost, multiply the bet size by 1.1 and back in the next qualifying match.

4. If the bet won, provided that there is no outstanding loss to recoup, multiply the profit by 2.5 and place a back bet with the resulting value in the next qualifying football match. If there is still loss waiting to be recovered, follow the loss recovery plan in point 3.

Tested for 9 days.
Period of testing: 27/05/2019 to 04/06/2019.

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